Matt Chapman

Bats/Throws: R/R
Date of Birth: 4/28/1993

Traditional Stats: 622 PAs, .210/.314/.403, 27 HR, 72 RBI, 32.5 K%, 12.9 BB%
Advanced Stats: .311 wOBA, 101 wRC+, 41.7% Hard Hit Rate, 3.4 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR

When the lockout ends, the Mets will presumably be in the market for another bat. This will be even more prevalent if a Universal DH is implemented, which I think it will be. Thanks to the versatility of players like Eduardo Escobar and Jeff McNeil, the Mets can choose which position to acquire another hitter. They could go after another outfielder, a DH, a third baseman, or the less likely option of signing Freddie Freeman away from the Braves and pushing Alonso to the DH spot. For the option of third base, the Mets can look to free agents like Kris Bryant or to trade options like Matt Chapman and Josh Donaldson.

Chapman is arguably the best defensive third baseman in baseball. He and Francisco Lindor would combine for one of the greatest defensive infields on the left side of the diamond in Major League history. For his career, Chapman has posted 78 defensive runs saved and 76 in the four non-pandemic years that he has played. Chapman also helps his teammates drastically in the field. Craig Edwards, formerly of FanGraphs, highlighted how Chapman’s ability to get to balls to his left dramatically helped Marcus Semien‘s defensive numbers.

Rian Watt, also from FanGraphs, reinforced back in 2019 about how Chapman’s presence had helped Marcus Semien at shortstop, a fact Semien himself re-enforces by saying: “He’s really good at reading hitters and reading what’s different about this, so even when playing way back he’s already on the bunt. It’s been a good combination these last two years.” The Mets’ new and improved positioning staff would have a field day with how to position Lindor and Chapman to maximize the teams’ defensive efficiency.

His defense combined with league average offense gives him a floor of being a 3-4 win player. That’s precisely where he was in 2021. Chapman regressed from his MVP level of play from 2018 and 2019 to hit: .210/.314/.403 with a .311 wOBA and a 101 wRC+. Chapman still provided power by hitting 27 homers but beyond that, it was not the Chapman that the Athletics were accustomed to. From 2018 to 2019, Chapman hit .263/.348/.507 with a .361 wOBA and 132 wRC+.

What may have been more concerning was that Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed drastically, 32.5% after being in the low-20s during 2018 and 2019. To add to that concern, the source of his increasing strikeouts was not due to him chasing bad pitches, they were due to him missing pitches in the zone. From 2018-2019: Chapman made contact on pitches in the zone 84.8% of the time. In 2021, he was only making on pitches in the zone 75% of the time. Fortunately, there is a potential reason that a fairly athletic (no pun intended) 28-year-old was struggling to have quick enough bat speed to make contact on pitches in the zone. Chapman was recovering from an off-season hip surgery that he had in 2020 to fix a torn labrum.

The problem is that while it could be an easy answer to sell ourselves, there is no way to know if Chapman is just losing the ability to turn pitches around or if it was the injury. Every time Chapman had a month where seemed to be turning it around, he followed it with a month where he struggled mightily. His June and August were reminiscent of his 2018-2019 seasons but his July and September were quite bad. His zone contact never really showed signs of returning to his 2018-2019 figure either.

To sum it up, the Mets would be acquiring a third baseman who will hit a home runs and play insanely good defensive but will be hoping that his offensive struggles were due to his injuries and not due to him losing bat speed.

Package 

I think the Athletics would need to a compelling package to move Chapman because they do not want to sell low on him. As such, I think any package begins with Ronny Mauricio. The Athletics also try to have quick rebuilds so I think they would also want a player who has already had MLB experience with some control. In that regard, David Peterson and Tylor Megill make some sense.  Assuming the A’s would want Mauricio and Peterson or Megill (if I were the Mets, I would try very hard to keep Megill and trade Peterson), I still think the A’s would want one more piece. Someone like Alexander Ramirez makes sense as a lotto ticket with high upside.

My Thoughts

Pass.

I like Chapman a lot and I think he would be a great fit for the Mets but I think there is a better option out there for them.  That option is Josh Donaldson. Donaldson can still hit as seen by his .247/.352/.475 slash. That’s not adding in the fact that Donaldson still barreled the ball at a high rate of 17.4% and had an expected slash of .268/.373/.541. I think the Mets need the sure option on the offensive side of things more than they need a great defensive third baseman.

The two best power hitters in 2021 not named Pete Alonso were arguably Kevin Pillar and Jonathan Villar. While the Mets have upgraded their lineup in the grand scheme of things, they still need more power. Eduardo Escobar is likely going to be the second best power hitter in this lineup as things stand. Chapman himself provides power but Donaldson is a better bet to provide power and OBP. Donaldson would also cost virtually nothing due to his contract. If I were the Mets, I would rather dangle Mauricio in a deal for a controllable starting pitcher and get Donaldson.

A less likely option but an option I pushed for last off-season and would still not mind is a Justin Turner reunion. The Dodgers still might go after guys like Freddie Freeman and Carlos Correa which might make Turner expendable. It’s probably not happening but if the Dodgers even consider it, the Mets should be all over it. He still managed to hit .278/.361/.471 with a 127 wRC+, old age and all.