Luis Castillo
Position: RHP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Date of Birth: 12/12/1992
Stats: 13 G, 3-4, 2.77 ERA, 78.0 IP, 3.2 WAR, 82 SO, 1.077 WHIP
Advanced Stats: 3.05 FIP, 3.26 xERA, 25.6 K%, 8.4 BB%
Rundown
Luis Castillo is still the best pitcher available on the market with the trade deadline now a week away, and a plethora of contending teams in need of upgrading their starting pitching ahead of a hoped postseason run will be checking in with the Cincinnati Reds between now and August 2.
It is no surprise that Castillo is attracting interest from seemingly half of MLB, especially when you look at his stellar 2022 season so far. The righty is currently enjoying his best season in the majors since making his debut way back in 2016, and he’s emerged as one of the best pitchers in the game this year.
He boasts a sparkling 2.77 ERA in 13 games despite playing for a Reds team that has a losing record yet again, including 82 strikeouts in 78 innings. That’s pretty impressive given the dire situation the 29-year-old finds himself in. Castillo boasts a 3.2 WAR with a 1.077 WHIP and he’s only allowed 27 walks and five home runs too. His ERA+ is at a career-high 166.
What has been most impressive about Castillo this year is the fact that he can go deep in games. Prior to the All-Star break, he threw 100 or more pitches in nine straight games and he absolutely dominated the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, holding the best and highest-scoring team in the majors hitless over 5 1/3 innings. That outing proved that the veteran is built for the big moment and would be able to handle the pressure of pitching for a contender in October.
Further backing up that last statement is the fact that Castillo had a stellar 1.38 ERA against AL East clubs prior to the All-Star break, meaning that he’s thrived against big-time competition this season. Castillo has enjoyed plenty of success with his lethal 4-seam fastball, which is averaging 97.0 MPH but has touched 100 MPH at times with a 39.8 percent whiff rate and 27.8 percent putaway rate. The xBA figure of .186 and BA figure of .138 proves just how legit the pitch is.
Able to rate through a four-pitch arsenal – including a changeup and a slider that have both proved successful this year – Castillo has absolutely filthy stuff and he’s almost impossible to hit when he’s locked in and has all four of his pitches going. Plus, the righty flashed in a small sample size that he can handle the pressure of postseason baseball having held the Brewers to one run in five 1/3 innings in the wild-card round in 2020.
Castillo ranks in an elite tier in terms of percentile rankings and his strikeout rate is currently at 25.6%, while he has a career-high in home run percentage with just 1.6%. Basically, the righty ranks high in every important category you’d consider for an elite starter and the eye test backs up just how impressive he has been so far in 2022.
While this season has been a breakout year in many ways for Castillo, he’s hardly been a scrub throughout his career. He holds a career 3.62 ERA across six seasons in the majors and he finished eighth in voting for NL Rookie of the Year in 2017 after posting a 3.12 ERA in 15 games. He made his first All-Star appearance in 2019 and finished that season with a 3.40 ERA with 226 strikeouts in 190.2 innings pitched. After a slight down year in 2021 with a 8-16 record to go along with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 75 walks, Castillo has rebounded and then some this year and he’s arguably pitching at the peak of his powers right now.
Package
This is where it gets interesting. As we’ve already mentioned, Castillo is the best starting pitcher available on the market and with a bevy of teams showing heavy interest, the price to obtain the 29-year-old is going to be high. Very high. Per Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY, the Reds are looking for a package that would feature at least two top five prospects, or three top 10 prospects.
That would be a mammoth price to pay, even for a top-of-the-rotation starter that is making just $7.35 million this season and has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining. Of course, a contending team would be getting an elite arm for a postseason run on the cheap effectively, but two top-five or three top-10 prospects is a huge ask.
Given that reports have stated the Mets would be unwilling to give up the likes of Francisco Alvarez or Brett Baty in a trade for superstar slugger Juan Soto, it is hard to imagine General Manager Billy Eppler giving up the farm for a starting pitcher. You also have to consider the fact that given the amount of interest in Castillo, that could spark a mass bidding war and the asking price could end up being even higher with the Reds keen to exit the trade deadline with a top 10 farm system.
Final Thoughts
While every team needs starting pitching and there is no such thing as too many good starters, especially in October baseball, it is hard to see the Mets making a serious run at Castillo unless something unforeseen happens to their rotation over the coming days. And it isn’t like this team is in dire need of another arm. Their starting rotation has now set a team record with 14 straight games with two or fewer runs allowed by the starting pitchers, who boast a 1.58 ERA during that span.
That has been without Jacob deGrom who is closing in on a return, so trading for Castillo at this point would just be a luxury and one that would come with a steep price. Of course, as we all know, things change quickly in baseball and it is very likely the Mets could lose an arm or two down the stretch. Heck, there is no guarantee that deGrom will even stay healthy given his recent health history. But, with both deGrom and Tylor Megill set to re-join the rotation before September, the Mets have other concerns they should be focusing on.
It has become more and more apparent coming out of the All-Star break that this lineup needs more power bats having put together a combined total of just two runs in their first two games against the Padres this week. And, while DH Daniel Vogelbach was a nice addition, he won’t move the needle for a team that is hellbent on making a deep postseason run in October. Yes, October outs are just as important as October runs but, given the stellar job done by the rotation so far and the main cast coming back, the Mets should be spending valuable resources on bats and not on a starting pitcher. Castillo would be a nice addition, but he’s not the answer to what this team really needs right now.
