MMO Trade Profile: C.J. Cron, 1B/DH

Position: 1B/DH
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 1/5/1990 (32)

Traditional Stats: 90 G, 103 H, 21 HR, 69 RBI, .298 BA/.350 OBP/.552 SLG
Advanced Stats: 3.1 WAR, .383 wOBA, 135 wRC+

Rundown

C.J. Cron has been one of the more underrated hitters in the league over his career. He owns a career slash line of .265/.326/.483, which is good for an OPS of .809 (MLB average in 2022 is .707). He also owns seven seasons with 16 or more home runs, four times hitting 20-plus in a season. All four of which occurring from 2018 to present day, with the only non-20-plus home run season being the shortened 2020 year.

As a right-handed hitter, Cron’s splits are reversed this season. He is dominating right-handed pitching with a .320/.369/.577 slash line. He also has 14 and 45 of his home runs and RBI against right handers. Over his career, his splits are not anything drastic. He is a career .261 hitter against right handers and a career .276 hitter against left handers. Something the Mets desperately need, someone who can hit both lefties and righties.

This season in particular Cron is having arguably his best. At the All-Star break, he owned a slash line of .298/.350/.552, which is good for a .902 OPS. The second-highest mark of his career thus far. He also has 21 home runs and 69 RBI, this puts him on pace for about 37 home runs and 122 RBI. Just a tremendous season thus far.

The expected statistics this season, and in year’s past, has matched up as well. He owns xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG numbers all above the league’s 50th percentile. This has also been the story for most every season in Cron’s career. Basically, the numbers he is producing over his career are well deserved.

Areas Cron has struggled throughout his career is his strikeout and walk rates, as well as his chase rates. This is no different this season as he owns a K% in the league’s 21st percentile, BB% in the league’s 27th percentile, and chase rate in the league’s 23rd percentile.

Each are definitely lower figures, but not numbers that are restricting him from being the All Star he has been this season. As well as the successful player he has been over his career. These concerns are not new.

The Coors Effect

This is where it gets interesting for Cron. Playing at Coors Field this season has benefited Cron tremendously. He has an absurd slash line of .352/.393/.674 in home games. On the road, he is only hitting .229 and owns an OPS of .695. This figure is .372 lower than his 1.067 home figure. Cron also has only his five of his 21 home runs and driven in 16 of his 69 RBI on the road. The splits are extreme.

However, despite this, Cron has shown in year’s past to be effective away from the altitude of Colorado. Last year, although more tremendous home figures, he owned an away OPS of .734 which would be above league average this season. He also owns seasons of 30 and 25 home runs with Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

Bottom line is Cron can be productive away from Colorado. Will his number dip away from Colorado if traded? Most likely a tad, but he can certainly still be a productive power bat for any team.

For what it’s worth, Cron’s career slash line across 11 games and 29 at bats at Citi Field is .276/.382/.517. This is good for a .900 OPS. He has two home runs and seven RBI over these 29 at bats.

Potential Package

The 32-year-old signed a two-year contract with Colorado worth $7,250,000 each season before this year. So, he is under control for one more season. Cron is not a pure rental, which should increase his trade value a tad.

Though, still do not expect Cron to be too pricey. He is an aging veteran who is pigeonholed to two different positions. If a trade is completed for Cron, expect the Mets to give up a prospect or two that is/are outside the team’s main group. Say, mid-to-low B-level.

Final Thoughts

It is no secret the Mets need an upgrade at designated hitter. It is well documented the struggles of the Mets’ designated hitters this season. Despite hitting the ball hard, J.D. Davis‘ enlarged strikeout rate (league’s fifth percentile) and horrific whiff rate (league’s second percentile) has restricted him from ever taking hold of the position. Meanwhile, Dominic Smith – who has a year-plus home run drought – has struggled immensely in almost all areas all season long.

To summarize the designated-hitter woes, the Mets’ designated-hitter role owns a positional WAR of -0.8. This ranks 20th in the MLB this season. This is the second lowest of any Mets’ position group. Only trailing New York’s catchers. Designated hitting is certainly an area that needs addressing this deadline. One of the better candidates? The power-hitting first baseman/designated hitter we discussed above.

With the above in mind, Billy Eppler and the Mets addressed one half of the need with the platoon-hitting, left-handed batter Daniel Vogelbach. However, as has been well documented, Vogelbach can only be effective against right-handed pitchers. So, a need for a right-handed bat is still a must.

Cron, who has hit both lefties and righties well no matter where he plays, can immediately be an everyday player for New York. He also can serve as a much stronger spell to Pete Alonso when he needs a day off than Dominic Smith or J.D. Davis can provide. Furthermore, like he has been overall, Cron is actually underrated defensively. He owns a plus-five defensive runs saved this season and is a career plus-12 at the position. This is something that cannot be said about Voglebach, who should be used as strictly a designated hitter.

Regardless, at the end of the day, despite some away from Coors Field concerns, Cron would be a relatively value-friendly upgrade for the next season and a half at the designated-hitter/first base position. There are certainly some better options out there, and with the acquisition of Vogelbach, trading for Cron may be less likely. However, Cron would still be a nice acquisition if the Mets so chose to go down that route.

Note, percentile statistics via Baseball Savant. Other statistics via Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Furthermore, all the above statistics are as of Thursday, July 21st, 2022.