Steven Matz, SP
Throws/Bats: L/R
DOB: Match 29, 1991 (25 on Opening Day)
Contract: Pre-Arb (Salary: league minimum)
2015 Recap
Believe it or not, Steven Matz made just nine major league starts last season. But listening to the hype, you’d have thought he’d won Rookie of the Year.
That being said, Matz was pretty excellent in his brief time with the Mets. In six regular season starts, he posted a 2.27 ERA over 35.2 innings. He also racked up 34 strikeouts (8.6 K/9) and 10 walks (2.5 BB/9). In the postseason, he pitched pretty well in three starts.
There were definitely some negatives with Matz, however. He missed significant time with lat issues, which kept him on the DL for much of the stretch run. He was also unable to go particularly deep into games. In September and October, he was never able to go further than six innings. Matz may have already had Tommy John Surgery, but he couldn’t shake the image of him as a fragile, injury-prone pitcher.
2016 Projections
Marcel – 78 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.2 K.9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.244 WHIP
ZiPS – 142 IP, 3.34 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
The projections and I are both cautiously optimistic on Matz. While we did see him get hitters out in the major leagues last season, the truth is we really didn’t see very much of him. I can see why Mets fans are so eager to tag him with the word “ace,” though. After all, we’ve had success developing Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom, right? Mets fans seem to have forgotten the slim odds even the best pitching prospects face. We need a little dose of realism here.
This isn’t meant to be a knock on Matz, however, because so far I like what I see. He commands an electric mid-90s fastball and the rest of his repertoire is nothing to scoff at either. He posted outrageous numbers in the minor leagues, better than any of the other top pitchers to come through the Mets system lately. The fact that he’s a lefty could help at times, too, not only in easing the stress of whichever lefties end up in the bullpen, but after two days of hard-throwing righties, Matz could throw opposing lineups off balance.
I don’t expect Matz to be quite on the level of a deGrom or Harvey, at least for now. His ERA predictors weren’t too bullish on his six starts last year. Granted, it was a small sample size, but he did leave over 90 percent of runners on base, which is not sustainable. He’s going to fall back down to Earth a bit, especially since he will be pitching later into games.
I’m certainly excited about Matz, but I’m not ready to jump on the “five aces” bandwagon quite yet.
