Neil Walker, 2B
Bats/Throws: S/R
DOB: September 10, 1985 (30 on Opening Day)
Contract: 3rd-year arbitration eligible (Projected $10.7 million)
2015 Recap
After a career year in 2014, Neil Walker saw a big drop in offensive production with the Pirates. In 2014, Walker slashed .271/.341/.467 with 23 home runs in 137 games. He saw his power go up significantly with a career-high .195 ISO and 51 extra base hits.
However, Walker saw his batting line dip to .269/.328/.427 with 16 home runs in 151 games. Overall, his offensive production boiled down to a 108 wRC+, still very good for his position. Even in his down year, his 108 wRC+ was very close to Daniel Murphy‘s 109 career mark.
Defensively, Walker was a bit below average at second base, coming in at -2 Defensive Runs Saved and -6.8 UZR. All of that comes from a simple lack of range. However, he generally makes the play on anything he gets to, which we can’t really say about Murphy.
Take a look at how Murphy and Walker compare with Inside Edge Fielding. Put together by Baseball Info Solutions, Inside Edge Fielding rates each play as either Impossible (0%), Remote (1-10%), Unlikely (10-40%), About Even (40-60%), Likely (60-90%), or Certain (90-100%) and tracks the successes. Here’s how Murphy and Walker compare over the last four years at second base:
This is obviously far from the perfect way to analyze a fielder, but it gives you a sense of what kind of second baseman Walker has been in comparison to Murphy. He is a definite upgrade.
It’s not all rosy for Walker. This past season, he struggled against left-handed pitching, slashing just .237/.284/.290 in 102 plate appearances. Walker has typically not hit lefties well despite being a switch hitter, owning a .656 OPS against the,. But even for him, 2015 was a bad year against the southpaws. I would expect Wilmer Flores to get some at-bats in these spots.
2016 Projections
Steamer – 526 PAs, .258/.329/.427, 17 HR
Steamer600 – 600 PAs, .258/.329/.427, 19 HR
Marcel – 559 PAs, .263/.330/.436, 18 HR
Unlike with Duda’s projections yesterday, I think these are right on the money. Walker will be hurt by the move to Citi Field, which is still arguably the toughest place in baseball to hit. Considering he hit 23 home runs in 2014, the possibility of a 20 home run season from Walker is very possible, which can’t really be said for Murphy. Despite a much lower batting average, a season like any of the three above would be more productive than a typical year from Murphy.
A .260/.330/.430 year would be a fine season for any second baseman. Combined with Walker’s average defense, we can expect an fWAR in the 2.5 to 3.5 range, a sure bargain at less than $11 million.
