asdrubal cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
Bats/Throws: S/R
DOB: November 13, 1985 (31 on Opening Day)
Contract: First year of two-year, $18.5 million deal

2015 Recap

Asdrubal Cabrera did not (and probably will never) regain his form that saw him hit 25 home runs with the Indians five seasons ago, but his 2015 season was undoubtedly solid. Over 143 games with the Rays, Cabrera smacked 15 home runs and slashed .265/.315/.430, which comes out to a 104 wRC+, well above the 85 league average for a shortstop.

Cabrera hit both righties and lefties equally well, unlike Neil Walker, who we previewed yesterday. This past season, Cabrera had a .752 OPS against righties and a .725 OPS against lefties. For his career, those numbers are .737 and .748.

Defensively, he was below average, coming in at -7 Defensive Runs Saved and a -6.0 UZR. That’s not good, but not terrible either.

All in all, the defensive numbers didn’t hurt his value too much. According to Fangraphs, he was worth 2.2 Wins Above Replacement, while Baseball-Reference pegged him at 1.7.

2016 Projections

Steamer – 530 PA, .243/.305/.394, 14 HR

Steamer600 – 600 PA, .243/.305/.394, 16 HR

Marcel – 537 PA, .251/.309/.412, 14 HR

Another day, another article with me more or less agreeing with the projections. (Trust me, that will change soon.)

With Cabrera hitting 16, 14, 14, and 15 home runs the last four seasons, he is just about as good a bet as anyone in the league to hit around 15 home runs. He won’t put up a 120 wRC+, but he’ll hit around league average, which again, is very good for a shortstop. Here are the shortstops who did it last year:

That’s it. Cabrera isn’t going to put up flashy numbers, but he’s quite a good hitter for his position. The Mets are getting a very good value here.

But there’s more. With Cabrera now on the roster, Wilmer Flores will move to the bench, where he will get playing time at second base, third base, and occasionally shortstop. Flores, who is a very similar hitter to Cabrera, will provide both power and flexibility for the Mets, and will serve as insurance in case of an injury.

In terms of Cabrera’s indicators, his .306 BABIP from 2015 was right in line with his .307 career mark. His home run per fly ball rate was basically the same as his career rate. However, there are somewhat concerning numbers from Cabrera that have me a little unsure about exactly where he will fall this season.

First up is his hard hit ball rate. According to Fangraphs, it dropped from 33.8 percent in 2014 to just 26.4 percent last year. Cabrera has had great success before with a similar hard hit ball rate (the season he hit 25 bombs, it was 26.8 percent). However, as players get older, you start to worry whether they are starting to lose precious bat speed. According to Brooks Baseball, his average exit velocity is average, but this is certainly something to keep an eye on.

The other concern is his elevated swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone. This past year, this rate rose to 37.4 percent, well above his 30.7 percent career averages. Especially if his bat speed really is deteriorating (which we don’t know it is), it will be all the more important for him to lay off pitches he can’t hit.

All that said, Cabrera is still a good bet to be a league average bat with some pop and not a total liability in the field. A season in the range of .245/.305/.410 is a solid bet for Cabrera with 15 or so home runs.

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