Since Brodie Van Wagenen has taken over the Mets, he has made a flurry of moves. Amed Rosario may be the lone returning starter in the infield. The outfield will see at least one new face whether it is Jeff McNeil in left or Keon Broxton fighting it out with Juan Lagares for a spot in center.
On the pitching front, the bullpen is radically different. Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Justin Wilson present a formidable back-end. When you add Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, this promises to be a very good bullpen. On the starting pitching front, well, the Mets are going with the same five starters who ended the season.
That means Jacob deGrom, but it also means Jason Vargas. Behind Vargas, the Mets pitching depth constitutes players who struggled in the majors with the Mets last year in Corey Oswalt, Chris Flexen, Drew Gagnon, and P.J. Conlon. Joining them are new Mets Kyle Dowdy, Hector Santiago, and Walker Lockett.
The question for the Mets is whether this is sufficient depth, especially with the threat of pitching limits and pitcher injuries. Our writers present their opinions in our latest Roundtable:
Marissa Credle – Poor Injury Histories
I am not comfortable with the pitching depth. It’s no secret that the core of this pitching staff has had trouble staying healthy. If one of Wheeler or Matz gets injured, the back end of the rotation is really hindered given the lack of other options the team has in the minor leagues right now. If someone like Oswalt or Flexen takes a step forward then it wouldn’t be a huge issue however I don’t believe that they’re reliable long term solutions if someone were to get injured and be out for a long period of time
Jack Hendon – Conflicted
I’m conflicted about the depth in this rotation. There’s no denying what the first four men in line are capable of, and I happen to be in the minority of fans who actually thinksVargas can suffice as a fifth guy given how he managed the last two months of the season. The kicker here, as it’s always been, is durability.
Getting 59 combined starts out of Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz was a gift that, though likely an attribute to Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland as restorative, intuitive pitching coaches, does not really stand up well against their respective histories as pitchers. This goes all the way back to their days as prospects. I don’t anticipate the disaster that was 2017 happening again, but there are always a good 15-20 games in which the Mets will have to rely on what they have beneath the current rotation. That can be the difference between a 90-win and 90-loss season.
Looking at the group in comparison to last year, I’m not necessarily uncomfortable with what they have. Corey Oswalt – if you take out his rocky debut – had a 3.97 ERA as a starter last year, and a 78 percent strand rate as a starter isn’t all that bad for a depth piece. Of all the pitchers the Mets have desperately given a ball to in recent memory (think Tommy Milone, Sean Gilmartin, Tyler Pill), Héctor Santiago has considerably more experience, and if you can excuse the walks, he’s really a fine option to have on retainer in Syracuse.
It’s what follows this pair that concerns me deeply. Flexen looks to be in great shape, but how he functions in a new body remains unknown. Walker Lockett, P.J. Conlon, Drew Gagnon, and Kyle Dowdy, though all admired by the coaching staff, have next to no starting experience beyond the minors, and even then had their share of issues missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard. Trading Justin Dunn for Edwin Díaz and Robinson Canó – while a deal I would still pull the trigger on – left a hole in their farm system when it comes to young talent that can be counted on in the near future. If anything happens to Oswalt and/or Santiago fails to show up, there’s a legitimate reason to be concerned about a 2017 repeat.
Mojo Hill – Little Margin for Error
I am not comfortable with the starting pitching depth. In fact, I am rather worried about it right now going into the season. The current rotation is great, but it’s top-heavy. While Vargas showed improvements at the end of last season, you don’t really know exactly what you’re gonna get from him, and there’s hardly any quality depth behind him, especially after the trade of Justin Dunn.
These Mets starters have been very injury-prone in the past, and if (or should I say, when) one of them goes down, suddenly you’re relying on guys like Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt, and Hector Santiago to make starts. And after those guys it gets ugly fast. So while the Mets have a very good rotation at the moment, it worries me that there’s a ton of uncertainty and a severe lack of reliable options behind the big guys. And while the Mets have actually done a solid job of acquiring position player depth, they have failed to properly address their lack of starting pitching depth. The health of their position players will obviously be important, but the health of their rotation will be even more crucial as there is very little margin for error.
Matt Mancuso – Simply No
My go-to response for this question is just to answer “NO!” While the Mets have done well to upgrade their position player depth, they haven’t gone much to improve their starting pitching depth. That being said, their top-5 is among the best in the majors. 2018 showed how the sky is the limit for the Mets’ top three and even Steven Matz and Jason Vargas enjoyed productive second halves. However, the last several years have proved that it is impossible for the Mets starting staff to stay healthy.
Since the Mets have a rotation of hurlers who haven’t lived up to their potentials waiting in the wings in Syracuse, an injury to one of their starting pitchers could be catastrophic. With their starting pitching depth(or lack thereof), they’re clearly going for quantity over quality. Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt, and Walker Lockett haven’t impressed in their major-league stints, albeit short stints, while Hector Santiago’s last productive MLB season was in 2015. The impact of Justin’s Dunn exit from the system can’t be more overstated considering the lack over ineffective starting pitchers coming up the pipeline.
Ever since the Mets’ current staff have graduated to the Majors, injuries have cropped up and ruined otherwise promising seasons. While Chris Flexen and Corey Oswalt can become quality Major-Leaguer pitchers with time, they should not be the immediate depth for a team that’s clearly in a win-now mode. Quality starters like Gio Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz, and Dallas Keuchel are all still available on the market and the Mets would be smart to sign one of them.
Tim Ryder – Very Comfortable
I’m very comfortable with the starting rotation and the depth behind them. Would another mid-tier addition be helpful? Of course, but deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, and Vargas all showed sharp increases in effectiveness over the second half of the season. I’m expecting similar production out of the group with Matz as my rising star for 2019. Hector Santiago and Walker Lockett should provide a dependable safety net in case of injury, and, in the worst case scenario, Seth Lugo can be shifted into the rotation.
Dilip Sridhar – Decent Depth
The Mets have decent depth. This time last season, their only options were Flexen and Oswalt. Now, they added Lockett and Santiago. It’s still not great because they don’t have a top pitching prospect who is in Triple-A, but at the very least, they can have some breathing room as opposed to last season or even 2017. David Peterson and Anthony Kay taking big steps forward would make me feel a lot better about the Mets pitching depth. As for now though, the starting 5 will have very little competition for their jobs especially since Dunn was dealt.
John Sheridan – Too Many Ifs
If we harken back to 2015, the components of the rotation stayed mostly healthy, and yet, the team would still need 10 starters to get through the season. Looking at the Mets starting pitching, with Vargas having a 6.04 ERA since the 2017 All-Star break, you could argue this rotation only goes four deep. That is very problematic when you consider the injury histories of their top four starters and with Jeff Barry, the agent for deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, pushing his clients to limit their innings.
This is why including Dunn in the trade to obtain Cano and Diaz was so short-sighted. By including Dunn, the Mets lost their top MLB ready pitching prospect. This puts the Mets in a position to hope Flexen’s surgically repaired knee allows him to pitch better and for Oswalt to pitch better with more judicious handling. Considering how that unfolds, as well as the development of other pitchers like Lockett, the Mets may be in a Mike Pelfrey like situation with Peterson and Kay debating whether their development should be sacrificed in an attempt to bolster a pitching staff trying to go to the postseason. This also has the Mets taking Santiago out of the reliever equation after he thrived in the bullpen last year.
The hope is someone like Flexen could emerge as this year’s Logan Verrett or Terry Leach. If that happens, the depth is fine. If . . . .
Really, when you break it down, there are too many ifs when you look at the Mets pitching depth. For a GM who took over announcing he was going to eliminate or at least reduce the ifs, you have to wonder how he could make one of the biggest ifs with this team the starting rotation depth. Overall, while Van Wagenen has done well to build depth in certain parts of this roster, his inability to provide real sufficient pitching depth is a glaring error, which could derail this Mets season.
While there is some faith with the Mets rotation depth, for the most part, our writers do not believe there is sufficient depth. Do you agree with our writers? We look forward to continuing this discussion in the comment section.
