Joe D. got us kicked off on Thursday with his offseason plan for how the New York Mets can turn back into contenders going into the 2018 season and now I will give it a shot.
Our guidelines are that we must stick to a budget in the $30-35 million range given what we’ve heard the Mets could spend. We used both MLB Trade Rumors and Jon Heyman’s free agent predictions to come up the contracts for each player.
The Mets have several holes to fill and not a ton of money to work with which had me searching for deals on the free agent market and here is what I think should be done with the limited resources.
Offseason Plan No. 2 – Mike M.
Mets Need Rotation Depth
It’s been widely reported that the Mets aren’t focused on signing a starting pitcher despite the historically bad 2017 season (franchise worst 4.77 ERA) from the rotation.
Even if the Mets do sign a starter it’s highly unlikely they sign someone in the upper groups like Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn so I decided to shop in the next level.
The Chicago Cubs went shopping outside of the top tier when they signed Tyler Chatwood (three years, $38M) in hopes that analytics like his soft contact rate of 22.1% (13th best in MLB) and groundball rate of 58.1% (6th best) could lead to a breakout.
I went looking into some of the same numbers in hopes of finding a cheaper version of Chatwood and came up with right-handed starter Jhoulys Chacin.
Chacin, 29, went 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 2.3 fWAR, 1.27 WHIP and a career-high 32 starts for the San Diego Padres in 2017. He allowed only 157 hits (7.8 H/9) and 19 home runs (0.9 HR/9) while striking out 153 (7.6 K/9) and walking 72 (3.6 BB/9) in 180.1 innings.
There are certainly concerns with Chacin given his high walk rate, led the league with 14 HBP and his numbers were far better at home (1.79 ERA) than on the road (6.53).
However, when you’re talking about getting a starting pitcher for only two-years, $14 million like MLB Trade Rumors predicted there are going to be concerns.
Reasons why I would sign Chacin to be a back-end starter is his groundball rate of 49.1% (4th among available starters), soft contact rate of 20.2% (same as Michael Wacha) and his limiting hard contact to 28.5% of the time (tied for 27th among starters with Luis Severino).
Chacin used his sinker a career-high 39% of the time in 2017 and opponents had a measly .361 slugging percentage against the pitch according to BrooksBaseball.net. He also threw his slider a career-high 32% with hitters managing only a .297 slugging percentage off it.
At only $7 million per year, Chacin gives the Mets much needed back-end rotation depth and also has experience in the bullpen if somehow all of the other starting options stay healthy. As a bonus he’s a terrific fielding pitcher with 7 DRS in 2017, tied for second in the majors.
Lengthening the Bullpen
The Mets have the start of solid bullpen with Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos and Jerry Blevins but the depth drops off the table after that. I believe the Mets will sign two relievers to major league deals with my picks being Pat Neshek and
I’ve long wanted the Mets to have a submariner pitcher since the short days of Darren O’Day, trading away Joe Smith and not re-signing Chad Bradford. Thus, I land on Neshek not only because he’s submariner but because he was one of the best relievers in baseball during the 2017 season.
Neshek’s 1.59 ERA was sixth among MLB relievers, his 1.86 FIP was seventh and his 11.50 K/BB was second behind only Kensley Jansen’s 15.57. The right-hander struck out 69 in 62.1 innings and allowed only 48 hits and three home runs in that span.
Neshek held right-handed hitters to a .201/.213/.273 slash line in 2017 and righties have just a .542 OPS against him during his 11-year career. The past season wasn’t the only success for Neshek, he has a career 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.03 K/9.
The price tag for Neshek is at two-years, $12 million per the MLB Trade Rumors prediction, which is very reasonable for a reliever in today’s market.
The second reliever I would sign is right-hander Juan Nicasio. The 31-year-old did blossomed in 2017 after switching full-time to a reliever and pitched in a league-high 76 games.
Nicasio posted a 2.61 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 9.0 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP in 72.1 innings spread across three teams with the biggest chunk coming with the Pittsburgh Pirates before they inexplicably lost him on waivers.
The former starter finished the season as the Cardinals closer and has 82 big league starts under his belt. Nicasio saw a velocity spike of almost two MPH on his fastball in 2017 while averaging 95 and topping out at 99 MPH.
Heyman has Nicasio pegged at two-years, $14 million keeping the Mets at another short-term deal which seams to the preference.
Offensive Stability At First Base
Let’s get right to the point, the Mets obviously have concerns about whether or not Dominic Smith is the short and long-term answer at first base. Combine that with they will already have a young player starting at shortstop in Amed Rosario while having numerous other offensive question marks and you have the Mets scouring the free agent market for a first baseman.
Which brings me to former Indians veteran Carlos Santana. The 31-year-old played a majority of his time behind the plate before moving to first base in 2014. He’s also played third base and saw seven games of major league action in right field this past season.
Santana improved his defense vastly at first base in 2017 making him a gold glove finalist and was tied for the most DRS in the American League at 10. His 4.8 UZR was third among major league first baseman.
He might not be your typical slugging first baseman but Santana has never had a wRC+ below 107 in the majors and since becoming an everyday player in 2011 the fewest amount of games he played in a season was 143. That is a pretty big deal for a Mets team that has been ravaged by injuries the last few seasons.
In 2017, Santana hit .259/.363/.455 with 37 doubles, 23 home runs, 90 RBI, 117 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR and struck out only 94 times. Santana was one of only four players to walk at least 13% while striking out less than 15% last season. The other three players; Joey Votto, Anthony Rendon and Anthony Rizzo.
Heyman’s expert in predictions has Santana’s deal at three-years, $38 million, an affordable deal for the Mets. The three-year deal definitely puts Dominic Smith on the trading block.
Trading for Everyday Center Fielder
The Mets current plan in center field looks like a combination of the oft-injured Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo whose defense is better served in the corners. Michael Conforto had major shoulder surgery, Yoenis Cespedes ended the season on the DL and the Mets have virtaully no outfield depth in the upper minors.
Enter Randal Grichuk. The St. Louis Cardinals outfielder is 26-years-old and is entering arbitration this offseason in which he is expected to make $2.8 million.
The right-handed hitting Grichuk had his best season in 2015 when he hit .276/.329/.548, posted a 3.1 fWAR and had 7 DRS while playing all three outfield spots.
Grichuk has played all three outfield spots with some regularity and has been a solid defender in each. In 1289 innings playing center field he has 15 DRS and a 3.6 UZR.
Now we get to the risk portion of Grichuk. Last season he hit only .238/.285/.473 with 25 doubles, 22 home runs and struck out 30.1% of the time. His major league walk rate is 6.1% and strikeout rate is 29%, neither are good obviously. He does add some value on the base paths with a 3.0 BsR, which would have been the second highest on the Mets in 2017 behind only Jose Reyes‘ 5.4 BsR.
There have been multiple reports this offseason of the Cardinals looking to trade Grichuk after the breakout season from Tommy Pham in 2017 and Dexter Fowler having three more seasons on his deal. They also have Stephen Piscotty, top position prospect Harrison Bader that is close, prospect Tyler O’Neil and Magneuris Sierra, who made his MLB debut in 2017.
Not to mention that the Cardinals have been one of the most aggressive teams in trying to acquire Giancarlo Stanton. The Cardinals have been on the look out for pitching depth as well this offseason even after signing Miles Mikolas. They’re likely to lose relievers Juan Nicasio and Seung Hwan Oh to free agency, They also released Trevor Rosenthal earlier this offseason after having Tommy John surgery this summer.
Let’s talk cost. Grichuk comes with three years of control, is hitting arbitration for the first time this offseason and is getting pushed out of a playing spot. Seth Luog or Robert Gsellman makes sense as a target for the Cardinals that could use them as starter or reliever. Cards could also target a hard-throwing reliever like Jacob Rhame or Jami Callahan.
It’s tough to gauge what an actual trade would look like but I would offer the Cardinals a package of Gsellman, Rhame and infield prospect Luis Carpio.
I understand that my offseason plan doesn’t include acquiring a second baseman but it’s extremely hard to fill all of the Mets holes on the expected budget. They do have Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera as second base options. Luis Guillorme will be at Triple-A waiting too, and Gavin Cecchini provides some depth as well.
I would see what I could get for second base/third base depth in exchange for Dominic Smith given the signing of Santana.
Final Tally
Key Acquisitions: Jhoulys Chacin, RHP ( 2 years, $14M), Pat Neshek, RHP (2 years, $12M), Juan Nicasio, RHP (2 years, $14M), Carlos Santana (3 years, $38M), Randal Grichuk (trade, ~$2.8M in 2018), Daniel Nava, 1B/RF (minor league deal), J.J. Hardy, INF (minor league deal), Robbie Ross, LHP (minor league deal).
Key Departures: Robert Gsellman, Jacob Rhame, Luis Carpio
Total Cost: $35.5 million
