Tyler asks…
Why is Jon Niese still on this team? They should have traded him two years ago but now it’s even more important to get rid of him and put that $9 million dollars to better use. Thoughts?
Dr. Dooby replies…
The frequent calls to trade Mets left-hander Jon Niese to pick up some payroll flexibility are somewhat perplexing and even misguided. Most teams need 9 or 10 starting pitchers to make it through an entire season. That´s why all the “let’s trade Jon Niese” talk seems rather weird to me.
Niese started 29 games for the Mets in 2015 and allowed three or less runs in 19 of those starts. His peripherals all took a hit from his fine season in 2014, but Niese still had prolonged periods of effectiveness this past season.
Right now, Niese will be needed as the Mets’ number five starter for the 2016 season. Zack Wheeler will be an option by July in all likelihood, but odds are the Mets will still have to use 3 to 4 more starters to make it through the season. One as an emergency starter / long reliever on the major league roster and a couple of more at Triple-A who can come up and fill in when needed.
For now, the only three realistic and major league ready candidates for this role are Logan Verrett, Sean Gilmartin and Rafael Montero (if healthy). Eventually, Gabriel Ynoa, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo may emerge as candidates – but almost certainly not before July.
J.A. Happ – a pitcher who has put up nearly identical numbers to Jon Niese – just received a three-year, $36 million contract, so I don´t think you can get an adequate replacement for Niese at less cost. Maybe you can re-sign Bartolo Colon to a 1-year, $9 million type deal, but that’s merely replacing Niese at the same cost.
You will only be able to land lesser pitchers at lower cost. Sure, you can probably get Ryan Vogelsong, Aaron Harang or Kyle Kendrick for less than $5 million. But that’s a significant downgrade from Niese. Or you can look to sign someone like Justin Masterson, Mat Latos or Doug Fister to a one-year deal in a similar range to Niese and hope for a bounce-back. But I wouldn’t bet on any of them outpitching Niese either.
Niese is signed to a very modest and quite team friendly deal due to the club options. And his trade value isn’t really huge either as he’s getting paid pretty close to market value. So, why trade him? He won’t bring back a major piece. And replacing him would cost the Mets a similar amount of money.
