Johnny asks…
Should the Mets reunite with Carlos Gomez?
John replies…
That’s a creative question Johnny. Since the GM meetings began, all we have heard are rumors about the Mets being interested in just about everyone. Gomez hasn’t been apart of those rumors yet, however.
The problem with the Mets’ “interest” in anybody is that it is merely that: interest. The key number of the offseason so far is $30 million. That’s roughly the amount of money the team has indicated they are willing to add to the current payroll. That means if the Mets want to make big changes, they’ll need to get creative. They could go all-in on a couple of free agents, spend it on multiple reclamation projects, or do something in the middle.
Gomez would certainly cost less than many of the top free agent outfielders such as J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Jay Bruce as his stock has fallen since 2014. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports ranked him the 18th best free agent available out of 80. Heyman lists an expert’s prediction of Gomez landing a three-year, $35 million contract, while he personally predicts him receiving a two-year, $18 million contract.
If the Mets gave him either contract, they would be spending about a third of their available funds on an outfielder who has struggled somewhat in recent seasons, but on the flipside is only a few years removed from being one of the best center fielders in the game.
How good was Gomez at his best? From 2013-2014 he looked like he reached a point where he would be a perennial All-Star. At his peak, there were few center fielders who were better.
In 2013 he got his first All-Star nod, received his first Gold Glove, and finished ninth in the MVP race. That’s because he hit .284/.338/.506/.843 with 80 runs scored, 27 doubles, 10 triples, 24 home runs, 73 RBI, and 40 stolen bases.
If his offense wasn’t enough, his defense made him that much more valuable. He had a 27.2 UZR and 32 DRS in 1,242 innings in center field. According to FanGraphs, he had sparkling 7.4 WAR for his career best season.
Gomez took a step back in 2014, but one that any of the 30 MLB teams would gladly have accepted. He was invited to his second All-Star Game and finished 16th in the MVP race after a season in which he had a 5.7 WAR. His statistics were quite similar to those of the year prior as he hit .284/.356/.477/.833 with 95 runs scored, 34 doubles, four triples, 23 home runs, 73 RBI, and 34 stolen bases.
The next three years were really only average in comparison. He had a 2.7 WAR in 2015, 0.9 WAR in 2016, and 2.3 WAR most recently in 2017. That’s still not horrible for a player on a two-year, $18 million contract, but will he really make that much of a difference for the Mets in 2018?
Additionally, while Gomez’s offensive game may have been somewhat similar to that of 2013, his defense has been in a five year downward spiral. He only had a -0.6 UZR and -3 DRS in 1,269 2/3 innings in center field last season. It may even be time to move him to a corner outfield position, which wouldn’t help the Mets at all.
If he ends up being at the top of his game, he’ll be a steal and a difference-maker. If his performance is status quo, then the Mets are basically paying someone to produce results that their current players are capable of producing. For signing him to make an impact, the Mets have to hope.
Juan Lagares would be the clear option if the Mets don’t sign a center fielder. He too has a high ceiling in terms of value. In 2013 he had a 24.4 UZR, 28 DRS, and a 2.9 WAR. In 2014 he had a 18.6 UZR, 26 DRS, and 3.9 WAR. Obviously almost all of Lagares’ value comes from his defense and he still needs to improve his offense.
In an effort to do that, Lagares will work with private hitting coach Craig Wallenbrock during the offseason to improve his swing. Wallenbrock was credited with fixing Martinez’ s swing. Martinez has been a top player since joining the Detroit Tigers in 2014.
If Lagares improves his offense, he could be the solution at center field.
Sure Gomez could be part of a platoon in center, but paying around $10 million for a fourth outfielder wouldn’t be in the Mets’ best interests. Platooning him with Lagares may not be the best idea either because Lagares has shown he doesn’t thrive when he doesn’t play everyday. His last two seasons are a testament to that.
What this question boils down to is whether he would be worth the investment for a team that has a reported $30-40 million to spend this offseason. It would be a nice story to have Gomez come back to the team that he was signed by at 16-years-old and debuted with in 2007.
But the Mets might be better off addressing more pressing needs like adding a legitimate slugger, addressing second or third base, perhaps first base as well, and then of course bolstering the bullpen. Signing Gomez and calling it a day in the outfield might not be the best option.
