Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Jeffrey Kittel asks…

Is the Mets rotation WORSE after this offseason, despite getting Scherzer?

Mojo Hill replies…

The state of the Mets rotation is interesting right now because it features (when healthy) the best one-two punch in the game. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are both well into their 30s (with Scherzer pushing 40), but each is still at the top of his respective game. The real question marks come after those two.

I would lean on saying that, assuming no major injuries (which given the Mets’ history is not necessarily an easy assumption), the 2022 rotation is better than the 2021 rotation. Of course, the 2021 rotation was hurt by deGrom’s injury, when he was on track to have a career year even by his standards. My main reasoning is that they added Scherzer while the rest of the rotation stayed relatively stagnant. This is, again, assuming full health from deGrom and Scherzer.

The notable loss is Marcus Stroman, but I would argue that acquiring Scherzer more than outweighs losing Stroman. Yes, I think this rotation would be much stronger with deGrom-Scherzer-Stroman as the top three. But even if deGrom stayed healthy last year, I’m pretty sure anyone would take deGrom-Scherzer over deGrom-Stroman. That’s no disrespect to Stroman, who’s a great pitcher. But he’s not on Scherzer’s level.

That being said, there certainly are question marks after the top two. Taijuan Walker is coming off a rough second half. Tylor Megill and David Peterson have both shown promise at times, but are yet to fully prove themselves at the major league level. Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco posted a 6.05 ERA in 12 starts last year. All three of these guys could  be strong contributors. The trouble is that there’s too much uncertainty surrounding them.

Once the lockout ends, there are still some guys the Mets could go after in free agency, such as Clayton Kershaw (though unlikely), Zack Greinke, Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Duffy or Drew Smyly, to name a few. I think at the very least, they could really use a reliable if unspectacular arm they can throw in the No. 3 spot in the rotation. Stroman would have fit that bill perfectly.

But to answer your question, Jeff, I don’t think the Mets rotation is worse despite getting Scherzer. Of course, there’s a lot that can’t be predicted, such as what ends up happening in the injury department. But Scherzer’s impact can’t be downplayed. Without him, it would just be deGrom and everyone else. Now the Mets have, in theory, the best one-two punch in the game. While it’s still going to be a quest figuring out the rest of it, that’s a really, really good start.