Mets Lifer asks…
Will the Mets finally have a winning season in 2015, or considering the lack of significant upgrades this offseason, are we to expect another 79 win season as FanGraphs projected for us? Do you think we can squeak into the postseason?
Andre replies…
An 85-77 record this year seems like a pretty reasonable mid-ground bet. Let me explain.
If not for Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, and some serious early season bullpen meltdowns, the Mets were probably an 81-win team talent wise in 2014.
I expect David Wright and Curtis Grandersona to do a bit better collectively this season and that should be good for +1 or +2 wins.
Michael Cuddyer and his backups (Mayberry vs. L / Nieuwenhuis vs. R) should be better than the production we got from Eric and Chris Young, that too should be good fo for +1 win.
Matt Harvey over Dillon Gee is easily +1 or +2 wins even without Harvey in top form.
Our depth is going to be much better than last year and probably better than most teams. The Mets will open 2015 with 5 (!) consensus Top 100 MLB prospects at Triple-A who should all be ready to step in by the 2nd half of the season.
All of them seem like pretty good bets to be at minimum adequate replacements for whoever they need to replace. But it’s very likely that in some cases they may represent an upgrade. That´s a unique situation in MLB that no other team has going for them. I´ll say +1 win for that too.
One important thing to note is that the Mets have no individual player who seems like an irreplaceable superstar. Now, some of the Mets young arms could emerge as that – but for now I´m not projecting any of them to be that, at least in 2015.
The quality of the rest of the team should be similar. While Lucas Duda may regress slightly, Travis d’Arnaud figures to improve some to even that out.
Juan Lagares and Daniel Murphy seem like sure bets to repeat what they´ve done recently. I don´t expect much from shortstop, so that remains unchanged.
Jacob deGrom may regress a bit but Zack Wheeler and Jon Niese should certainly see some improvement. Wheeler in particular finished last season very strong and could be in for a breakout season.
While I already added a couple of extra wins for losing Valverde and Farnsworth who cost the Mets more than that, I expect similar if not better results from the returning core bullpen group of Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, Carlos Torres and Josh Edgin, backed up by the young arms at Vegas too.
Overall, that should allow the Mets to contend deep into the season.
However unless shortstop turns out better than expected, or Wright and Harvey return to 2013 levels, or someone else has a surprising big breakout, I don’t expect the Mets to be a playoff team this season, which is quite disappointing.
But to answer your question, yes I do believe the Mets will have a winning season and that they’ll play meaningful baseball for most of the season. After six consecutive losing seasons, that will represent progress. It could also be the prelude to bigger and better things in 2016.
