Angelo T asks…
Do you think we could acquire Lewis Brinson from the Miami Marlins for Dominic Smith?
Josh Finkelstein answers…
The Mets definitely need to acquire a center fielder this offseason and taking a flier on someone like Lewis Brinson, depending on the price, probably would be worth it.
That being said, with regards to the proposed trade above, Dominic Smith would probably be too much for the Mets to offer, given that Smith could likely net you more of a guarantee at a position than Brinson.
Brinson, 25, has not developed into anything close to the type of player the Marlins expected him to when he headlined a deal that sent Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers.
In 205 MLB games, Brinson has hit .183/.238/.293 with 13 home runs and 60 RBI to give himself a 43 wRC+ and -2.9 fWAR.
Defensively speaking, he’s been roughly average in center field with one defensive run saved and a -1.3 UZR over 1,431 innings at the position in his career.
His 2019 season was absolutely brutal, in which he spent more than half the season at Triple-A. In 75 MLB games, Brinson hit .173/.236/.221 with no homers and 15 RBI.
It should be noted, though, that he was better in the minors this season as he hit .270/.361/.510 with 16 homers, 56 RBI, and even 16 stolen bases.
The biggest reasons for Brinson’s struggles at the major league level are his lack of power (.110 ISO) and his high strikeout rate (29.8%), which have shown little to no signs of improvement over parts of three seasons.
It should be mentioned, though, that Brinson actually has been prone to some bad luck as his .247 career BABIP would suggest.
One reason for that could be the ballpark he plays in as Marlins Park is one of the most power suppressing stadiums in the game.
In 103 career games at Marlins Park, Brinson only has 12 extra-base hits as compared to 27 in 102 away games, which is a significant gap. While his .546 OPS on the road is still pretty dreadful, there is still some appeal here as a change-of-scenery player.
The Mets tried this last offseason when they acquired Keon Broxton from the Brewers, with it obviously not working out the way they hoped as Broxton was gone by the end of May.
Broxton, though, was not nearly as highly-regarded as Brinson, with the latter ranking among the top prospects in all of baseball at one point.
If the cost to acquire Brinson is still relatively high, which I would consider Dominic Smith to be since he’s arguably a better outfield option than the former right now, then the Mets shouldn’t bother.
But, if the cost to acquire Brinson is maybe a couple of prospects towards the bottom half of the Mets’ top-30 (MLB Pipeline), they should go for it as they could potentially be getting a starting outfielder under control through the 2023 season.
The reason the Marlins might at least consider this is because Brinson is running out of minor league options, with only one remaining. With the way he’s produced so far in his career, he might not be worth rostering in the Marlins’ eyes.
Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto simply aren’t good options to play center field every day next season, especially if J.D. Davis is going to also comprise the same outfield.
Taking a shot on Lewis Brinson, who can actually play center field, makes a ton of sense for the Mets at the right price.
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