Kodai Senga. Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Sunday, April 2, 2023 • 1:40 PM
loanDepot park • Miami, Florida
RHP Kodai Senga (0-0, -.–) vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (0-0, -.–)
SNY

The New York Mets (2-1) and Miami Marlins (1-2)  wrap up their first series of the season this afternoon with the Mets going for a series win and the Marlins trying to force a split. Today, we will see the first major-league start for Kodai Senga. He will take on Trevor Rogers (5.47 ERA), who struggled mightily last season.

Yesterday, the Mets went up 1-0 early but the Marlins were able to claw back and take the lead, 2-1. After that, the game switched to all New York with the Mets scoring five more runs to win 6-2. Mark Canha had the big day. After starting the season slow in his first two games, he went 3-for-4 with a double and a home run leading the Mets’ to victory.

Mets Lineup

As mentioned above, we get to see the highly anticipated major league debut of Kodai Senga (2:40 AM local time in Japan). Last year, for SoftBank in Japan, he had a 1.89 ERA and 1.041 WHIP over 148 innings. How much of his “ghost forkball” (splitter) will we see in today’s game?

It was reported that he was avoiding it during spring training in order to stay healthy for the regular season. In his first spring start he tossed it a few times and it was linked to a finger injury. Even with limiting his most famous pitch in spring training, he still managed to strike out 10 batters over nine innings this spring.

Marlins Lineup:

Trevor Rogers will make his 2023 debut for the Marlins this afternoon. He was an All-Star in 2021 with a 2.64 ERA and 160 ERA+ over 133 innings. Last year, though, was a different story.

Over 23 starts (107 innings) he had a 5.47 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.505 WHIP and a 74 ERA+. He faced the Mets last season in back-to-back starts at the end of June where he allowed seven runs, six earned, over 9 1/3 innings via 12 hits and three walks. New York has the following numbers against Rogers:

Game Notes

Kodai Senga will become the 14th Japanese-born player to appear in at least one game for the Mets, the most by any
major league team. He enters the season as the 16th-best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.

Last night, the Marlins went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Over the last three games, Mets’ pitching has held the Marlins to three hits in 22 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

Although not popular with Mets’ fans, Tommy Pham has a strong historical profile of a successful leadoff hitter. He doesn’t chase pitches, walks, and hits the ball hard. This evident by his walk and chase rates that always rank in the top of the major leagues. Though, only time will tell with how he does in this role.

Starling Marte is 5-for-9 with a run, an RBI, a double, a walk, and two steals in three games this season. He looks poised for a monster season.

Three Things To Watch For

  1. Reversing Sunday Woes: In 2020, the Mets lost eight-of-10 games they played on Sunday. In 2021, the Mets lost 12-of-26 games they played on Sunday. Last year, they improved to only losing 10-of-28 games on Sunday. What will this first Sunday in 2023 bring?
  2. Pete Alonso’s Hot Start: Not mentioned earlier was Alonso’s game yesterday. He went 2-for-3 and improved to 3-for-11 with three walks on the season. He has a double and a home run as well, bringing his early season OPS up to 1.065. Alonso has struggled against Rogers historically (1-for-14, 6 SO). Can he buck that trend today?
  3. Pressure Building on Escobar: Escobar has always been a streaky hitter and in the first three games this season he looks to be on a cold streak, collecting one hit in 12 trips to the plate. Meanwhile, Brett Baty went 4-for-4 yesterday with two home runs and a terrific play in the field.