Position: SS

Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 30 (10/02/1992)

2022 Traditional Stats: 150 G, 631 PA, .307/.377/.456, 15 HR, 38 2B, 73 RBI, 171 H

2022 Advanced Stats: 134 wRC+, 5.7 rWAR, 6.1 fWAR, .362 BABiP, .323 xwOBA, 4.9 UZR, 4 DRS, 5 OAA

Note, Bogaerts still is not a free agent, as he has an option he has yet to decide on. There is still a chance that he opts in an remains in Boston. Though, consensus has him opting out. This profile is written as if he is going to opt out and become a free agent. 

Rundown

Xander Bogaerts has been one of the most consistent bats in the Red Sox lineup since he became an everyday player. The 29-year-old made his fifth All-Star team in 2022 and posted his fifth-straight season with a wRC+ of at least 129. While this year was a down season in the power department for Bogaerts, his strikeout rate dropped considerably from 27.5 percent in 2021 to 18.7 percent this year, which is in line with his 18.3 percent career mark.

For the longest time, the biggest concern about Bogaerts was his glove. However, he had the best defensive season of his career by far in 2022. He registered 4.9 UZR, which was up from 2.3 a year ago, 5 OAA (negative-9 in 2021), and 4 DRS (negative-5 in 2021). Bogaerts also provides good value on the bases with eight steals and 4.7 BsR this year.

While his surface numbers are strong, Bogaerts’ advanced statistics suggest that he could be in for some regression. His hard-hit rate fell from 43 percent to 39.5 percent, his fly ball and line drive rates both decreased, and his ground-ball rate went up to 46.6 percent, the highest it’s been since his disappointing 2017 season. His average exit velocity dropped to just 88.1 MPH, and his .259 xBA and .323 xwOBA aren’t promising either.

Certainly, something to keep an eye on going forward. Especially not playing in an extremely hitter-friendly Fenway Park, if he does leave Boston.

Contract

Bogaerts is expected to opt out of the remaining four years and $80 million from the seven-year extension he inked in 2019. Though, worth noting, there is still a possibility that he opts in or extends with Boston on a new deal.

Though, if he does hit the open market, in a loaded shortstop free agent class this off-season, Spotrac.com estimates Bogaerts is worth a six-year contract and $186 million. The $31 million average-annual salary would be the fourth-highest ever for a shortstop, trailing just Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Carlos Correa, all of whom signed their deals in the last two years.

Bogaerts is still in his prime entering his age-30 season and is a very well-rounded offensive shortstop that could fit in well in almost every lineup. While his defense improved this year, it’s hard to imagine it staying effective as he ages, and given his lack of versatility, Bogaerts, at some point down the road, may be forced into a designated-hitter role.

At the end of the day, it’s hard to imagine him making upwards of $30 million per year, but expect to him get a bit more than the $25 million annually that Marcus Semien received the last off-season. Of course, if he does opt out and leave Boston.

Recommendation

With Francisco Lindor locked in at shortstop for the long haul, Bogaerts doesn’t have a spot in the Mets’ infield. The only way it would make sense for the Mets to sign Bogaerts would be as a DH, which is a spot where the Mets desperately need production. Though, at this point in his career it is hard to imagine Bogaerts accepting a designated-hitter role. Especially given how strong he was defensively.

And again, as mentioned above, there is no 100% given that he opt out.

Statistics via Fangraphs.