Trey Mancini
Position: First Base/Designated Hitter
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 30 (3/18/1992)
2022 Traditional Stats: 143 G, 587 PA, .239/.319/.391/.710, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 124 H
2022 Advanced Stats: 101 OPS+, 1.3 bWAR, 9.0 BB%, 23.0 K%, 40.5 HardH%, .286 BABIP, .152 ISO
Rundown
Trey Mancini was never a highly-touted prospect despite the success he has had at the Major League level. In 2013, he was selected in the eighth round of the MLB Draft by the Baltimore Orioles, where he signed and eventually made his MLB debut in 2016. In only 15 plate appearances on the season he recorded three home runs and there was optimism about the type of player Mancini could become, as he was one of Baltimore’s top prospects heading into 2017.
Mancini proved the hype was real in his first full season in Baltimore. He hit .293 with 24 home runs and finished third in the American League Rookie of the Year vote behind Aaron Judge, who also finished as the MVP runner-up, and Andrew Benintendi. Because of his impactful first season, Mancini firmly established himself as one of the key contributors in Baltimore’s lineup.
Despite the fact that the Orioles were one of MLB’s worst teams in both 2018 and 2019, Mancini was a force to be reckoned with at the plate. His 2018 home run total of 24 matched that of his previous season, and 2019 was even more of a breakout for the power-hitting first baseman, as he recorded 35 home runs and 97 RBIs along with an .899 OPS.
2020 was where things took a scary turn for Mancini. On April 28, he announced he had stage 3 colon cancer and would undergo chemotherapy. This, in conjunction with the postponement of the season due to COVID-19, caused Mancini to miss the entirety of the 2020 season.
The following offseason, Mancini declared that he was cancer free and would join the Orioles for the 2021 season. His comeback story was an inspiration to many, as no one knew if he would ever be able to play baseball again. Yet, Mancini defied all the odds and put up respectable numbers in 2021, recording 21 home runs and a .758 OPS. Mancini was easily one of the best stories in sports in 2021, and was deservedly given the American League Comeback Player of the Year Award.
2022 was an up-and-down year for Mancini. For nearly the entire season, his name was included in trade rumors but with the Orioles greatly overachieving, many thought he would contribute in a surprise playoff race. However, the rumors proved to be true as he was traded at the trade deadline to the Houston Astros. Mancini’s stats at the time of his trade were deflated due to the modified and pushed-back left field wall in Oriole Park, and the Astros believed his stats could spike at Minute Maid Field.
While playing in Houston allowed Mancini to hit home runs at a higher rate than he had in Baltimore, he severely struggled with his new team, posting a slash line of .176/.258/.364/.622 and an OPS+ of 60 in the second half of the regular season. His struggles continued into the postseason, as he recorded just one hit in 21 at-bats during the Astros’ run that culminated in becoming world champions.
Contract
Prior to the 2022 season, Mancini signed a one-year, $7.75 million deal with the Orioles to avoid arbitration. Part of this deal was a $10 million mutual option for the 2023 season, an option that Mancini and now the Astros will have to decide on. If Houston and Mancini both opt in, he will remain with the Astros for 2023. However, if Mancini or the Astros opt out, he will hit the free agent market.
Spotrac.com estimates Mancini’s market value to be $18.1 million in average annual salary, and predicts he will sign a five-year, $90.6 million deal if he becomes a free agent. If Mancini believes he really is worth that much, it would make sense for him to opt out of his mutual option and test free agency.
Recommendation
Trey Mancini was one of the Mets’ top targets this past trade deadline, and is clearly a player the team has interest in. This makes sense considering his connection to Buck Showalter, who was his manager in Baltimore for the first two years of his career. One of the reasons Mancini did not land as a Met at the deadline was due to the team’s philosophy not to trade top-tier prospects, especially for a player with an expiring contract. Now that Mancini could be on the free agent market, the Mets could go after him without giving up prospects. And as we know, Steve Cohen isn’t afraid to spend money.
Mancini doesn’t exactly fit the identity that the Mets created in 2022. He doesn’t grind out at bats or boast a high OBP. What he provides is power and the ability to get extra-base hits, which is exactly what the Mets didn’t have and they suffered at the end of the season because of it.
Another one of Mancini’s qualities is the ability to hit righties and lefties equally as well. The 2022 Mets relied heavily on platoon bats, but Mancini is the type of hitter who can play everyday, especially if he can rebound from his poor performance in the latter half of this season.
The Mets should definitely consider signing Mancini if he becomes a free agent. He has the flexibility to play first base, left field, right field, or be a designated hitter.
