Trevor Story
Position: SS
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 29 (11/15/1992)
Traditional Stats: 142 games, .251/.329/.471, 34 2B, 24 HR, 75 RBI
Advanced Stats: 100 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR, .341 wOBA
Defensive Stats: 3.6 UZR, -7 OAA
Rundown
At 28, Trevor Story had his first season without Nolan Arenado by his side in the field and the lineup. Arenado made up for Story’s defensive deficiencies and meant opposing teams could not pitch around him. And at 28, Story had his worst season by traditional metrics since his sophomore age 24 season, posting an OPS of .801.
Story might be the least exciting name of the big five shortstops available this offseason. But that might discount a two-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger who finished with MVP votes in 2018, 2019, and 2020.
The concern of any team signing a player out of Colorado is their numbers skewed from playing half of his games in Coors Field. Story has a 125 wRC+ at home and a 98 wRC+ on the road for his career. Compared to Arenado who was traded to St. Louis, he had a 125 wRC+ at home and a 110 wRC+ on the road.
Traditional numbers show Story’s batting average and on-base percentage as 60 points lower on the road and his slugging percentage 160 points lower.
Story has displayed 35+ home run power before, but I think he’s more in line with the 24 mark he hit this season. In 2018 when he hit 37 home runs, he ranked in the 95th percentile in barrel rate and 90th percentile in hard-hit percentage. In the three seasons since he topped at a 75th percentile barrel rate and the last two seasons, he’s had a 61 and 62 percent hard hit. Story hit 35 home runs in 2019 but that isn’t a consistent or reliable mark to expect from him.
Contract
Story already declined the qualifying offer from the Rockies, and it remains increasingly surprising they didn’t trade him at the trade deadline in 2021. Spotrac lists his market value at $29 million. That’s more $10 million more than Marcus Semien but a couple million less than Corey Seager and Carlos Correa.
Story is ranked as FanGraphs 10th-best free agent with a median crowdsource coming in at six years and $150 million for an average of $25 million per season.
Teams signing him would need to be wary of a declining throwing arm and his decreasing power output since 2019. Whatever team does sign him won’t be worried about his arm since he provides an incredible amount of power from a middle infield position.
Recommendation
Stay away. The Rockies and Mets couldn’t agree to a trade at the deadline and that should be the closest Story is to wearing a Mets uniform. Francisco Lindor‘s presence would mean Story as to move to second because his arm isn’t built for this base.
It would make much more sense for the Mets to re-sign Javier Baéz for less than Story.
If I were the Mets I’d take a look at a different Colorado free agent that can help in starting pitcher Jon Gray. Gray, a complete conundrum, pitched better at Coors Field than on the road. Any pitcher that can do that certainly has my interest.
