Position: Outfielder, Third Baseman and Shortstop
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age (for the 2022 season): 27 (8/18/1994)

Traditional Stats (Japan): 134 G, 538 PA, .317 BA, .433 OBP, .636 SLG, 1.069 OPS, 38 HR, 88 RBI, 77 R

Rundown

Seiya Suzuki drew a ton of attention this winter before the lockout. When the lockout ends, there will be 20 days in his signing period to sign with a major league club.

His stats in Japan over nine seasons are very impressive. He has a career .309 batting average, .402 on-base percentage and .541 slugging percentage. He has 189 career home runs, 621 RBIs, and has amassed over 1,000 hits.

Most players end up performing better in Japan than the United States, so you have to plan for a small decrease in production. However, most are labelling him similar to a modern-day Wade Boggs. MLB ZiPS projections for Suzuki for 2022 have him with a slash line of .287/.351/.480, hitting 23 homers and driving in 85 runs.

Those numbers are fairly similar to those in Japan, and certainly make him an upper-level player. For reference, in 2017, Michael Conforto had a slash line of .279/.384/.555, while slugging 27 home runs with 68 RBIs in what most consider his best MLB season.

The fact that Suzuki has never faced major league pitching makes him a sever wild card, but could be one worth gambling on for the team that gets him. 2021 was his best season, as he set career highs in home runs, slugging, and OPS. He has also stolen as many as 25 bases in a season, for what it’s worth.

Contract

ZiPS is projecting Suzuki brings in $83 million over five years, or a $16.6 million AAV. Because he played in Japan, there is limited information on his salary from his tenure there. Besides, his salary would be weighted incredibly different in the U.S, so it doesn’t matter much what he made in Japan.

They also projected the Mets as the fourth-most likely team to ink Suzuki, tied with the Padres and behind the Phillies, Brewers, and Athletics.

Once the lockout ends, it is likely that Suzuki signs fairly quickly.

Matt Musico of MMO took a look at Suzuki’s market back in November.

Recommendation

Five years and $83 million is way too much in my eyes for a guy who hasn’t ever faced major league pitching. His numbers are great, and the $16.6 million AAV is warranted, but five years is too lengthy. The Mets’ outfield is currently sitting at Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. While Suzuki would likely be an upgrade from Mark Canha, there is no way to project that based off his stats in Japan.

If he played the way he did in 2021, then he would probably be the best outfielder the Mets have. However, there are too many “what ifs” to be worth risking it for that kind of money.

I would feel most comfortable signing him as a fourth outfielder, but that is a lot of money for a high risk/high reward bench player.

That being said, I think the Mets should take a shot at pretty much anyone that will make the team better this winter, and Suzuki will certainly make them a lot better. Could turn into one of those “sign a fourth outfielder now and worry about the challenges later” situations, where they have he and Canha swap off.

Don’t forget, the Mets will also now have a DH, opening a possibility for any of those potential outfielders to have that role.