Nicholas Castellanos
Position: RF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: March 4, 1992 (27)
Traditional Stats: .289/.337/.525, 58 2B, 3 3B, 27 HR, 73 RBIs, 143 K; 664 PA
Advanced Stats: 121 wRC+, .357 wOBA, 2.8 fWAR; -9 DRS, -4.9 UZR/150 in 1,206.2 OF innings
Castellanos was selected 44th overall by the Detroit Tigers in the 2010 draft, putting together a .303/.359/.445 slash line with 35 homers, 107 doubles, 212 RBIs, and 353 strikeouts over four MiLB seasons (1,770 plate appearances).
The Florida product made his major league debut in September 2013, going 5-for-18 with just one strikeout during his first taste of the big leagues. After slashing a combined .257/.304/.407 with 26 home runs, 64 doubles, 139 RBIs, and a 94 wRC+ over his first two full MLB seasons (2014 and 2015; 1,174 PA), Castellanos saw an uptick in production in 2016.
Over 447 plate appearances that season (a broken left hand in August ended his year prematurely), Castellanos hit .285/.331/.496 with a 119 wRC+, a career-high 18 homers, 25 doubles, 4 triples, and 58 RBIs.
His .272/.320/.490 effort over 157 games in 2017 (26 homers, 101 RBIs, 36 doubles, AL-leading 10 triples, 111 wRC+) was encouraging enough, but Castellanos’ 2018 season was the culmination of his development.
The then-26-year-old set career-highs in batting average (.298), on-base percentage (.354), slugging percentage (.500), wRC+ (130), and wins above replacement (3.0; FanGraphs) while hitting 23 dingers, scoring 88 runs, and plating another 89. His play in the outfield was (and remains) sub-par, but Castellanos clearly hit another gear in 2018.
Last season was just as prosperous for the seven-year MLB veteran. After hitting .273/.328/.462 with 11 homers, 37 doubles, and 37 RBIs for the Tigers from Opening Day through July 31, Castellanos was traded to the Cubs, who were just a game behind the Cardinals for first place in the NL Central at the time.
Apparently, a change of scenery and being thrust into a pennant race has quite an effect on Nick Castellanos’ productivity. From the trade through the end of the season (225 PA) Castellanos slashed .321/.356/.646 with 16 home runs, 21 more doubles (his 58 led the majors in 2019), and just 47 strikeouts.
From August 1 through the end of the year, Castellanos’ 154 wRC+ was tied with fellow free agent Anthony Rendon for fifth-best in the National League. His 2.0 fWAR over that span was good for 10th in the league.
Contract
Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs has Castellanos pegged for a four-year, $56 million deal this offseason, behind Marcell Ozuna‘s predicted four-year, $70 million deal — the highest outfielder on their rankings after J.D. Martinez chose to remain under contract with Boston last week.
Whether the soft market of the last two offseasons picks up is yet to be seen. In any case, scooping up Castellanos at such a price could end up being an absolute steal for any interested teams.
Recommendation
The New York Mets have more corner outfielders than they know what to do with. Unless general manager Brodie Van Wagenen is planning on doing some extremely heavy lifting this offseason, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see Castellanos in Flushing wearing anything but a road uniform.
One would have to assume, considering Castellanos’ defensive liabilities, a number of American League teams (the Rays, perhaps; maybe the Yankees) — who can keep his bat in the lineup as the designated hitter if/when they choose to do so — will emerge as primary suitors for Castellanos’ services.
