Matt Wieters, C
Position: Catcher/First base
Bats: Switch – Throws: Right
Born: May 21, 1986 (Age 30)
Qualified Offer: No
When Matt Wieters was drafted fifth overall in the 2007 MLB First-Year Player Draft, there were high expectations and hopes riding on the shoulders of the sizable junior out of Georgia Tech. Listed at six-foot-four and two-hundred twenty-five pounds coming out of college, the Baltimore Orioles couldn’t pass on the dynamic size and talent Wieters possessed, offering plus power from both sides of the plate (he’s a switch-hitter), a plus arm behind the plate (was Georgia Tech’s closer too), and above-average arm accuracy behind the plate.
Wieters spent only 169 games in the minors before getting the call to join the Orioles in 2009. Wieters absolutely raked in his first full season in the minors in ’08, slashing .355/.454/.600, with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and 82 walks compared to 76 strikeouts between Double A Bowie and Advanced A Frederick. He was rated by Baseball America as the Orioles’ number one prospect in 2008, and was rated as the 12th best prospect in the game by Baseball America before the start of the ’08 season. The Orioles believed they had a franchise player in their midst, and at catcher no less, a position that had been routinely filled by aging veterans and fledgling career minor leaguers.
The four-time All-Star has a career major league slash line of .256/.318/.421, with 117 home runs and 437 RBI in his eight-year career. Wieters has played in at least 124 games in five out of his eight seasons, a number the Mets would love to see d’Arnaud regularly play in.
Defensively, the two-time Gold Glove winner had a strong year behind the plate, throwing out 35% of base stealers (9th best), posting a positive DRS for the first time since 2012 with three, and had a defensive rating of 8.4 according to FanGraphs, his highest rating since 2013.
In terms of pitch framing, Wieters didn’t fare well in 2016, rating negatively in getting additional strike calls with a -55 (14th worst), resulting in a -0.49 calls per game, according to the website StatCorner. The last time Wieters posted positive numbers in those categories was back in 2011. Additionally, d’Arnaud has always rated highly in that category, as the website StatCorner lists d’Arnaud adding 60 additional strike calls (11th best), which equates to an additional 0.90 calls per game.
The Orioles did not offer Wieters a qualifying offer for 2017, as they had done last year, when he became just the second player since the inception of the QO in 2012 to accept it. So at least the Mets would not have to forfeit their draft pick (currently the 22nd pick) if they choose to sign Wieters.
The Orioles’ current catching corps includes Francisco Pena and Caleb Joseph, who combined for a .463 OPS in 63 games in ’16. Their number one prospect, Chance Sisco, should begin ’17 in Triple A Norfolk, and could get the call as early as mid-season. That’s why it’s a bit odd that the Orioles didn’t offer Wieters the QO, giving them potentially one more season to refine Sisco’s skills, while hoping Wieters finally has that breakout season that most scouts thought he would.
Contract: With no qualifying offer attached to Wieters, teams shouldn’t feel as reserved about signing him had the loss of a draft pick been in play. I also can’t envision Wieters obtaining an AAV of what the QO is going for, $17.2 million this season. My best guess is that Wieters could fetch a four-year deal in the $60-65 million range from a team, especially now that he’s the number one catcher on the market due to Wilson Ramos tearing his ACL in the last week of the season. Interested suitors for Wieters could include the Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, the Mets, and Orioles.
Recommendation: While Wieters would offer an immediate upgrade offensively at the catching position, his game does have holes and he hasn’t always been the model of health himself in recent years. My recommendation would be to pass on Wieters, and give d’Arnaud one more chance. The Mets are already getting set to engage in trying to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, their first priority on the open market, who will likely take $100 million plus to bring back into the fold.
Having d’Arnaud start the season as the everyday catcher is not the worst plan; as long as he’s healthy, he should be in line for a bounce back season. I would also encourage the front office to bring in a reliable veteran catcher, just as the Seattle Mariners did in recent days trading for Carlos Ruiz from the Los Angeles Dodgers, to act as a mentor of sorts . And with d’Arnaud set to make under $2 million this season in his first year of arbitration, as projected by MLB Trade Rumors and Pace Law School, it’s a bargain compared to the multiple millions it would take to secure Wieters.
