Madison Bumgarner
Position: SP
Bats/Throws: R/L
Age: August 1, 1989 (30)
Traditional Stats: 9-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.127 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 8.8 K/9
Advanced Stats: 2.5 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR, 107 ERA+, 3.90 FIP
After being drafted with the 10th overall pick out of high school in 2007, Madison Bumgarner has spent his entire career in the San Francisco Giants organization.
It only took a few short years for Bumgarner to be promoted to the big leagues, making his debut at 20 years old. Bumgarner made four appearances and pitched to a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings in 2009. Bumgarner would start the following year in the minors, but the left-handed pitcher finally cracked the Giants rotation mid-season, making 18 starts down the stretch. In five September starts, Bumgarner pitched to 1.13 ERA, helping the Giants win the NL West.
Bumgarner would then start Game 4 of the NLDS, becoming the youngest pitcher in Giants history to start and later win a playoff game, as the Giants advanced to the NLCS with the victory. Bumgarner started Game 4 of the NLCS as well, getting a no-decision, but returned in Game 6 to pitch two innings of scoreless relief to help his team advance to the World Series.
In the World Series, Bumgarner once again started Game 4 and he made his best start yet, throwing eight shutout innings. San Francisco won that game to move to 3-1 in the series and would go on to win their first World Series title in franchise history.
Contrary to popular belief, Bumgarner has not always been lights out in October. In the 2012 playoffs, Bumgarner pitched to a 11.25 ERA in his first two starts, allowing 10 runs in just eight innings pitched in the NLDS and NLCS. In the World Series though, Bumgarner returned to dominate form and delivered seven shutout innings. San Francisco went on to win their second World Series title in three years.
In 2014, Madison Bumgarner really cemented his legacy as one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all-time. The Giants were a Wild Card team that year and they turned the ball over to their 25-year-old ace. Bumgarner pitched a four-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Giants won 1-0 to advance to the NLDS.
Despite only allowing three runs (two earned) in a seven-inning start in the NLDS, the Washington Nationals handed Bumgarner his only loss of the 2014 postseason. San Francisco still advanced though, facing the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS. In Game 1 of NLCS, Bumgarner pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings. In the process, he set an MLB postseason record for a 26 2/3 scoreless inning streak on the road, dating back to the 2012 World Series.
Bumgarner got the ball again in Game 5, yielding three runs across eight innings pitched, as the Giants beat the Cardinals to clinch another World Series berth. All told, Bumgarner pitched to a 1.72 ERA in 15 2/3 innings pitched was named the NLCS MVP.
Now you can make the argument that Bumgarner’s performance in the 2014 World Series was the greatest of all-time. He first won Game 1, allowing just one run in seven innings pitched. Then in Game 5, Bumgarner pitched his second complete game shutout of the playoffs, once again allowing just four hits. He also became the first pitcher in World Series history to throw a shutout, while striking out eight batters and walking none.
Finally in Game 7, on two days rest, Bumgarner preserved a one-run lead by pitching five scoreless innings out of the bullpen to get a remarkable World Series winning save. Bumgarner finished the World series with two wins, one save and a 0.43 ERA in route to winning the World Series MVP.
Bumgarner’s career 0.25 World Series ERA across 36 innings pitched is an all-time record. He only added to his postseason legacy in the 2016 Wild Card Game against the New York Mets, throwing yet another complete game shutout.
While Bumgarner’s career will always be predicated on his performance in October, he has found plenty of regular season success as the Giants ace well. Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star, with a 3.13 ERA across 286 career starts. He is also one of the best pitchers in baseball when it comes to his performance at the plate, with 19 career home runs and two Silver Sluggers to his resume.
In 2019, Bumgarner proved his health after a pair of injury-plagued years, making all 34 of his starts for the Giants. He reached the 200-inning plateau for the seventh time in his career, while also eclipsing 200 strikeouts in a season for the fourth time. Bumgarner’s 3.90 ERA was the worst mark of his career, but part of that could be attributed to the juiced baseball. The lefty yielded a career-high 30 home runs this season, the third highest mark among all National League pitchers.
Set to enter his age-30 season, Bumgarner will be looking for his one big payday in free agency this offseason. With his relatively high strikeout rate (8.8 K/9) and his low walk rate (1.9 BB/9), Bumgarner should be an effective starting pitcher for years to come.
Contract
If Madison Bumgarner were to hit the open market, there is no doubt that his agent will try to compare him to last year’s top free agent starter, Patrick Corbin. Like Bumgarner, Corbin is a southpaw that was the ace of the Arizona Diamondbacks before becoming a free agent. He was a year younger than Bumgarner is now, but did not have nearly the same career accolades on his resume.
Corbin signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Washington Nationals.
The problem for Bumgarner is that in 2019, executives are no longer paying players based on what they have accomplished in their careers, but what they can accomplish in the future.
Corbin was coming off a career year when he hit free agency, with stats that indicated an uptick in future performance rather than a decline. He had a 11.1 K/9 rate, striking out 246 batters in 200 innings, with a FIP of 2.47 compared to his 3.15 ERA.
Including the postseason, Bumgarner also has way more millage on his arm with nearly 2,000 career innings pitched. Whereas Corbin had only thrown 945 innings prior to free agency.
Since Bumgarner is going to hit the market with the qualifying offer attached, he may only receive a slight pay raise from the $12 million he earned the last two seasons. Likely will be looking for a three-to-four year deal worth around qualifying offer of $17.8 million.
Recommendation
If the Mets are going to invest a lot of money in a starting pitcher, they might as well lock up their own guy and re-sign Zack Wheeler. Now if they chose to move on from Wheeler, which appears likely at this point, the Mets would be wise to be very patient in free agency when it comes to their need for a fifth starter.
Assuming Bumgarner’s market does dry up, the Mets should absolutely entertain the idea of adding him to their rotation. If signing Bumgarner doesn’t inhibit spending elsewhere, namely revamping the bullpen, the veteran left-handed pitcher could be the perfect fit.
Bumgarner should be able to take the ball every fifth day and give the Mets a chance to win more times then not. For a team with postseason aspirations, someone with Bumgarner’s experience could prove vital in October as well. If the price drops enough, the Mets should sign Madison Bumgarner.
By: Ryan Finkelstein
