Position: SP/RP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 33 (7/22/1988)
Traditional Stats: 27 G/21 GS, 7-7, 3.46 ERA, 106.2 IP, 80 SO, 1.284 WHIP
Advanced Stats: 1.0 WAR, 112 ERA+, 4.34 FIP, 8.6 BB%, 17.7 K%
Rundown
Kwang Hyun Kim is a Korean import who will be entering his age-33 season. The soft-tossing lefty was brought over from the SK Wyverns (now the SSG Landers) of the Korean Baseball League (KBO) after the 2019-20 season. He played 14 seasons in the KBO where he pitched to a 3.27 ERA over 276 starts. Kim signed a two-year contract totaling $8,000,000 with the St. Louis Cardinals two seasons ago. It expired at the conclusion of this year and he is now on the open market.
Kim made 35 appearances for the Cardinals over his two years with the team. In total, he pitched to an ERA of 2.97 , FIP of 4.22, and struck out 104 over 145 2/3 innings pitched. Worth noting, Kim made 35 total appearances but only started 28 of them. He served both as a rotation arm and a valuable piece in the bullpen for St. Louis.
Of his two big league seasons, 2020 was the more impressive. In that season, he had an ERA of only 1.62. His expected ERA of 3.85 and FIP of 3.88 were also strong figures, but did show Kim may have been a beneficiary of some good luck. Per Baseball Savant, he ranked above the league’s 50th percentile in the following pitching categories: Avg. Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, Barrel %, BB%, and Chase Rate. During the 2020 season, Kim relied on his ability to keep the ball in the strike zone and create soft contact. It lead to a very successful “rookie year.”
He did take a small step back this past season. The below chart illustrates the areas that saw decline:
|
2020 Statistic |
2021 Statistic |
|
|
ERA |
1.62 | 3.46 |
|
xERA |
3.85 | 4.48 |
|
FIP |
3.88 | 4.34 |
|
wxOBA |
60th percentile | 35th percentile |
| xSLG | 56th percentile | 37th percentile |
| Chase Rate | 57th percentile | 31st percentile |
| BB% | 60th percentile | 46th percentile |
Despite all this, it still was not a bad 2021 season for Kim. In total, he had 20 appearances where he allowed two earned runs or less. That works out to be 74% of his appearances this past season.
He started the year in the rotation where he had a 3.23 ERA before a four earned run performance that resulted in Kim being moved to the bullpen. While a part of the bullpen, Kim pitched 7 1/3 innings allowing only two runs. He ended the season with a six inning scoreless stretch across four appearances.
During the 2021 season, he was also still able to do what he does best: limit hard contact. His Avg. Exit Velocity and Hard Hit % ranked in the league’s 68th and 70th percentiles, respectively. He also limited barrel contact as his Barrel % ranked in the league’s 61st percentile. Each of the preceding demonstrates he was still inducing softer contact which is important, as that is what his game is built upon.
So, what resulted in the slight regression last year? It appears the chase rate had a lot to do with it. Additionally, batters were making contact with Kim’s pitches at a higher launch angle (increased from 7.8 to 9.2 degrees). The decrease in chase rate means more contact was being made and the increase in launch angle may have resulted in more extra base hits. Each explains the increases in earned run numbers as well as higher slugging and power numbers.
As for pitch selection, Kim relies mainly on his fastball (average 89 mph) and slider with a changeup and curveball in his repertoire as well. He threw his fastball 41% of the time last year, which was down from 2020 (49%). This presumably because Kim saw an increase in batting average against on his heater from .182 to .295. This is most likely another explanation in Kim’s drop in success from last year to this year.
His second pitch, the slider (38%), remained successful and generated an xBA of only .212 this past season. Kim’s changeup (12%) was also effective with a xBA of .242. He only threw his curveball 9% of the time.
Despite the slight step back this season, Kim could easily be a solid number five starter on most teams. He also has the versatility to serve as a middle-innings eater out of the bullpen were he saw a ton of success this past season. His slight regression should not be much of an issue, as for the most part, he is still did what he does best: inducing soft contact. Additionally, being 33 years old should not raise much red flags, as his soft-tossing nature usually ages pretty well.
Contract
As mentioned above, Kim only signed a two-year deal with St. Louis after coming from the KBO. It only paid him $4 million per year, so now that he is on the open market he will most likely be commanding a raise. It is worth noting, Kim has the option to return to the KBO as well if he does not like how the MLB market is shaking up. Add in the work stoppage, and there is quite a bit uncertainty that might encourage Kim to return home.
Nonetheless, as a 33-year-old it appears a two-year contract may be what makes the most sense if he stays in America. As for dollar amount, some examples we can look to is Rich Hill’s one-year, $5 million deal and James Paxton’s one-year, $10,000,000 contract with Boston. A safe bet for Kim would be a two-year deal, totaling in the range of $10 to $16 million.
Recommendation
The New York Mets saw the team’s rotation slowly coming together before the work stoppage with the signing of future Hall of Fame starter Max Scherzer. As it stands, the Mets rotation looks as such:
As the above shows, bringing in Kim would fill out the rotation very nicely. He would also help bring depth top-to-bottom, sliding a guy like Megill and Peterson into a number six starter role which would help in event of injury. Unfortunately, given the health history of several starters, it seems likely at some point. As mentioned above, Kim would also bring bullpen depth. The Mets currently do not have many multiple inning guys in their bullpen and if they so wished, he could fill this role.
Overall, Kim would be a great fit for a Mets team that is still looking to fill out the team’s rotation. He most likely would come at a favorable price that would allow the Mets to still spend on the bullpen if they so pleased. Besides Kim, there are not many other favorable options to fill out the rotation, bringing him in would certainly make sense and be a wise move.
