Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Age: November 23, 1984

Traditional Stats: 42 G, 150 AB, 26 runs, 46 H, 9 2B, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 18 BB, 26 K, .307/.400/.460

Advanced Stats: 1.3 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR, .376 wOBA, 140 wRC+

Rundown

No, this is not a troll article. Justin Turner is still a good baseball player and he can have a lot of value on the 2021 Mets. Turner hit an impressive .307/.400/.460 with a .376 wOBA and 140 wRC+ in 2020 and since 2017, his slash is .307/.397/.513. To put it another way, Justin Turner is still a great hitter despite getting older. OBP ages well, so his age will likely not deter teams away from signing him.

One could even make the argument that Turner has been aging like a fine wine. His average exit velocity every year since 2016 has been: 90.5 MPH, 89.4MPH, 89.1 MPH, 90.3 MPH, and 90.3 MPH. His hard hit rate in those same years has been 40.9%, 38.1%, 36.7%, 42.4%, and 44%. The fact these numbers have not fallen off for Turner would suggest that he still has some very good years left in him. These are trends that went in the opposite direction for Daniel Murphy, who will have a tough job finding a job this winter.

Another part of Turner’s game is his plate discipline. Turner only chased 22.6% of pitches he saw out of the zone this past season. Historically, he only chases 26% of the time. This was a Mets team that chased the 6th most in all of baseball, and that includes the presence of Brandon Nimmo. The Mets also had the second highest swing percentage in all of baseball. I’m not arguing that being in take mode at the plate is a better strategy than being in attack mode. However, I really don’t have to remind you about how infuriating the Mets offense was at times. The right-handed hitting Turner would be a nice welcome to a very impatient Mets offense.

The one thing with Turner that might be a cause for concern is his defense. Even if his defense slips, he would still be a better defender than J.D. Davis is (not high standards) but I’d imagine he would switch positions to first base some point, relatively soon. Turner’s defensive runs saved have not dropped much but his ultimate zone rating is what is more concerning to me. Turner’s UZR/150 has not been positive since 2016. His defensive runs saved is largely due to the most analytical team in baseball giving him good positioning for each hitter.

Contract

Craig Edwards of Fangraphs thinks that Turner is in line for a two-year deal worth $26 million. MLBTradeRumors thinks that Turner will be in line for roughly the same contract, (they’re giving him $24 million). This time last offseason, that deal would have sounded like a steal but given the market this winter, that deal might be fair for Turner. $12 million a year for Turner seems like great value for the Mets, especially when you consider some of the other contracts the Mets have handed out in recent years.

My Take

If the Mets decided to bring in Turner, it would likely mean that they’re trading several players. Between Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, and Dominic Smith, the Mets have three players who can hit but all three probably belong at first. It seems almost certain that at least one of those three will get dealt this winter, creating the opportunity for a Turner reunion.

In my opinion, the Mets should strongly consider bringing back Justin Turner. The Mets haven’t had a third baseman who can play defense at an average level and get on base 38-40% of the time since David Wright before his spinal stenosis. The Wilpons are gone which would hopefully mean that any lingering between Turner and the Mets can be buried.

This will ultimately boil down to one major question: whether the Dodgers want Turner back or not? If they want to keep him, then he is probably staying right there. But if the Dodgers are in the market for a shortstop like Francisco Lindor and slide Corey Seager over to third base, then Turner will not be needed there anymore.