Josh Hader
Position: RP
Age: 29 (4/7/1994)
2023 Traditional Stats: 61 G, 56 1/3 IP, 2-3, 1.28 ERA, 33 SV, 1.101 WHIP, 85 SO, 30 BB
2023 Advanced Stats: 321 ERA+, 36.8 SO%, 13.0 BB%, 2.36 xERA, 2.69 FIP, 3.52 xFIP, 1.7 fWAR, 2.4 bWAR
Rundown
Outside of an inexplicably tumultuous 2022 season, Josh Hader has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball since he made his debut in 2017. That remained the case in 2023, his first full season as a San Diego Padre. Despite the team as a whole being a major disappointment, Hader was a rare bright spot as he returned to being one of the game’s elite closers.
In 56 1/3 innings pitched, Hader allowed just eight runs all season, which was good for a 1.28 ERA. He also struck out 36.8% of all batters faced, a low mark for him in relation to the rest of his career, and saved 33 games as opposed to just five blown saves. This made him an easy choice to represent the National League in the All-Star game, the fifth All-Star nod of his seven-year career.
The highlight of Hader’s 2023 season was a stretch of 26 games from the beginning of June to the end of August in which he didn’t allow a single earned run. Across the 23 1/3 innings that he pitched in that stretch, Hader struck out 41 batters while allowing just 30 baserunners and holding opposing batters to a ridiculous .456 OPS.
Hader was nearly as impressive over the course of the entire season, allowing a .508 OPS against and recording just two full calendar months with an ERA above 2.00. He had four months with a batting average against under .160 and three months with a slugging percentage against under .160, keeping batters from recording base hits and especially extra-base hits, exactly the type of shutdown stuff you want from your closer.
In addition to the surface-level statistics, Hader’s dominance flashed in the advanced metrics as well. He finished the 2023 season in the 99th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, and SO%. He also posted elite chase rate (92nd percentile), whiff rate (91st percentile), barrel percentage (92nd percentile), and hard hit percentage (97th percentile) numbers.
Those elite numbers are consistent with where Hader has stood his entire career, outside of an abysmal 2022 season split between the Brewers and Padres in which he posted a 5.22 ERA. From 2017 to 2021, the first five years of his career, Hader recorded a 2.26 ERA over 282 1/3 innings pitched and a remarkable 15.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Even during his 2022 season, Hader still struck out 14.6 per nine innings. He can be wild at times, but even at his worst, he still has some of the filthiest swing-and-miss stuff in the game.
Contract
Spotrac.com projects Hader to command a contract in the range of five-years, $87.75 million, which is approximately $17.5 million per year. Regarding average annual salary, that would slot him below only Edwin Díaz ($20.4 million per year) and Liam Hendriks ($18 million per year) for relief pitchers. Hader is only one year older than Díaz was when he signed his mega contract, and it’s not far-fetched to believe that he could threaten Díaz to become the highest-paid relief pitcher in baseball.
Recommendation
With that being said, the Mets shouldn’t go after Josh Hader. While money isn’t a problem for Steve Cohen and new president of baseball operations David Stearns is familiar with Hader from their time in Milwaukee, it just isn’t the best allocation of money to have two relievers making nearly, or more than $100 million. That doesn’t even consider the fact that Hader has resisted pitching in non-save situations and for more than an inning at a time in the past.
Another roadblock in a potential Hader signing is that he is eligible to receive a qualifying offer from the Padres. If he received the qualifying offer and the Mets were to sign him, the Mets would be forfeiting a draft pick, which would go against the way Steve Cohen and David Stearns are trying to build the Mets. Ultimately, the Mets should look elsewhere to bolster their bullpen this offseason.
