Jorge Soler

Position: Outfielder
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age (for the 2022 season): 30 (2/25/1992)

Traditional Stats: 149 G, 602 PA, .223 BA, .316 OBP, .432 SLG, .748 OPS, 27 HR, 40 RBI, 74 R
Advanced Stats: 101 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR, -0.3 bWAR, .354 xwOBA, 11.1 BB%, 23.6 K%, .209 ISO, .250 BABIP

Rundown

Jorge Soler has developed into a hitter who packs some power (56 home runs over 205 games from 2019-2020), and though that power showed face in the first half of his 2021 season with the Royals, the team realized it’d rather have a live arm in the minors than pay Soler another $2 million in a lost season. He was shipped to the Braves and promptly helped the team win the World Series.

Brought to Atlanta to help somehow replace Ronald Acuña and Marcel Ozuna, Soler (along with Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario) boosted his OPS output with the Royals 150 points, in part by exceeding his first-half home run total (14 vs. 13) in half the games. He 24 percent below league average OPS+ standards with the Royals, then he was 28 percent above league average with the Braves. He was basically equally as bad with the Royals as he was good with the Braves.

What changed? He didn’t really hit the ball harder, didn’t hit it hard more frequently, and he didn’t hit it in the air more often. Well, he got a little luckier with balls in play–50 points higher with the Braves. (He had a.250 BABIP across the year, about 25 points lower with the Royals and 25 points higher with the Braves despite him playing in twice as many games with the Royals.) A jump like that from 2020 to 2021 would’ve put Soler in the top rungs of the league for year-to-year BABIP change.

And you know what else changed? He stopped playing games in Kauffman Stadium, one of the worst ballparks for home run hitters, and he went to Atlanta, which has been a league-average park for home run hitters since it opened. A lot more of Soler fly balls (8 percent jump) turned to home runs in Atlanta. Mirroring the trend of his statistical success, it seems he was equally as unlucky with the Royals as he was lucky with the Braves.

Contract

Soler earned $8.5 million in 2021 after hitting multiple plate-appearance incentives. Most of that was paid by the Royals, and the Braves covered the rest once he was traded. (As was clear from above, the Braves got max value out of the couple million they paid Soler.)

His next contract will depend on if teams think they’ll get Braves Soler or 2021 Royals Soler. MLB Trade Rumors seems to think the majority of Soler’s last three seasons will stick around for another three seasons, projecting him for a $36 million deal over a trio of seasons. Fangraphs, on the other hand, expects Soler to get a similar one-year deal as he did in 2021 around $8 million or $9 million.

Recommendation

At one year and less than $10 million? Soler would be a great fourth outfielder who can plug in at right and designated hitter. His power is a little more trustworthy than someone like Robinson Cano or Dominic Smith at this point. However, if Soler is demanding more than a one-year commitment, the Mets are better off looking elsewhere.

The late collective bargaining agreement (whenever that comes) will likely cause some free agents to settle on one-year pacts just to get onto teams before the season starts, so whether that be someone like Soler, Nelson Cruz, Tommy Pham or a litany of other free agents, the Mets should be in the market for players who can strengthen the team’s lineup depth.