Jameson Taillon

Age: 31 (11/18/1991)
B/T: R/R
2022 Traditional Stats: 32 GS, 14-5 record, 177 1/3 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 151 SO, 32 BB
2022 Advanced Stats: 100 ERA+, 3.94 FIP, 7.7 SO/9, 20.7 SO%, 4.4 BB%, 1.3 bWAR

Rundown

There are few pitchers in this year’s free agent class that can boast the sort of pedigree that Jameson Taillon carries with him. The former second overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Taillon has pitched in the national spotlight since his days playing high school baseball. He has had to live up to some lofty expectations, and although the results haven’t always been there, he has molded himself into a reliable starter who is set for a big payday in his first chance at being a free agent.

Taillon made his major league debut back in 2016 (against the Mets, funny enough) and posted an impressive 3.38 ERA across 18 starts (104 innings) in his rookie season. He experienced a bit of regression in his sophomore season with a 4.44 ERA in 2017, but he put together his most impressive season in 2018, pitching nearly 200 innings and posting a 3.20 ERA across 32 starts.

Coming off an 82-win season in 2018, the Pirates were hoping that Taillon would continue to be a key part of a young and talented pitching staff in 2019 that also featured Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer, and Trevor Williams. Instead, Taillon made just seven starts in 2019 due to flexor tendon and UCL injuries, and the rest of the pitching staff stumbled en route to a disappointing 69-win season.

Taillon missed all of the shortened 2020 season while rehabbing from those injuries. His time in Pittsburgh ended before he could take the field again when the Pirates traded him to the Yankees right before the start of the 2021 season. Taillon made 29 starts in 2021 but had rather lackluster numbers (4.30 ERA across 144 1/3 innings) and looked more like the pitcher that struggled in 2017 than the pitcher that excelled in 2018.

Given a second chance in the final year of his contract, Taillon came out of the gates much stronger in 2022 and put together a solid campaign. He crossed the 30-start threshold for just the second time in his career, posting a 3.91 ERA across 177 1/3 innings and establishing himself as a main fixture in a Yankees rotation that was one of the best in baseball this past season.

Taillon has never had overpowering stuff on the mound, and his strikeout numbers are less than eye-catching. However, he did a great job of limiting baserunners this season, as his walk rate and hits per nine were both above average. Taillon might not be the front-end starter that his draft position might have foreseen him to be, but he has shown more than enough prowess to be a capable back-of-the-rotation starter for a winning team.

Contract

Taillon is older than most first-time free agents at 31 years old, yet he is still in line for a big payday in this free agency period. Spotrac.com estimates his market value at three years and around $44 million, an average-annual value just shy of $15 million that would rank him among the top 30 highest-earning starting pitchers in the league.

That would be a steep price to pay for the output Taillon is expected to provide as a fourth or fifth starter, but the teams with that sort of money to spend would almost certainly not be looking for him to be a frontline ace anyway.

Recommendation

The Mets are in a tight position with their starting pitching, having just two members of their full-strength rotation under contract in Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. They figure to be in play for one of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, or Carlos Rodón, all certified aces that would pair well with Scherzer, but they also need dependable arms who can fill in the rest of the rotation.

Taillon has experience pitching under intense scrutiny as a former top prospect and while pitching in front of a New York sports crowd for two seasons. He has shown that he can be more than serviceable for a team in win-now mode, and his veteran presence might make more sense in the short term than younger guys with less experience like David Peterson and Tylor Megill.

Taillon is likely not near the top of the team’s priority list, and there will certainly be other suitors for his services. Still, it makes sense why the Mets have already checked in with his camp, and it would be a fun full-circle moment for a guy who made his major league debut against the Mets six years ago.