Jacob deGrom
Profile: Starting Pitcher
Bats/Throws: L/R
Age: 34 (19/06/1988)
2022 Traditional Stats: 11 GS, 64.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 0.746 WHIP, 5-4 W/L, 102 K, 8 BB
2022 Advanced Stats: 126 ERA+, 42.7 K%, 3.4 BB%, 2.24 xERA 2.13 FIP, 2.43 xFIP
Rundown
Jacob deGrom will be one of the biggest names on the market this coming winter. The ace has a proven track record in the majors, and he’s established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball over the past few years. With filthy stuff and an impressive resume, there will be a plethora of teams looking to pay the big bucks in order to add an elite starter to the front of their rotation.
Since making his Major League debut in 2014 for the Mets, deGrom has been a dominant force and he has only got better with age, maturing like a fine wine. The ace was crowned Rookie of the Year in 2014 after pitching to a 2.69 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 140.1 innings pitched, while he was even better the following year with a 2.54 ERA and 205 strikeouts. With the Mets going to the World Series in 2015, deGrom got to display his filthy stuff on the biggest stage with dominant performances against the Dodgers in the NLDS and against the Cubs in the NLCS.
After seeing his ERA tick up in both 2016 and 2017, deGrom set out for revenge in 2018 and officially began a stretch that firmly entrenched him in the upper echelons of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He threw 217 innings in 2018, pitching to a stellar 1.70 ERA with 269 strikeouts. That earned deGrom the National League Cy Young Award, a prize he would go on to secure in 2019 too after another outstanding year on the mound.
This is where things begin to get complicated. After pitching to a 2.38 ERA in 68 innings during the COVID-shortened year in 2020, deGrom was hit by a spate of injuries that really derailed what looked to be historic years in both 2021 and 2022. The righty missed the entire second half of the 2021 season due to right elbow inflammation, and a stress reaction in his right shoulder kept the ace out until July this year.
After nearly 13 months on the shelf, deGrom’s return was sensational and well worth the wait as he quickly reminded the baseball world just how special he is. He pitched to a stellar 1.98 ERA in August as he appeared invincible at times on the mound, throwing filthy stuff and mowing through lineups as if he had never been away.
Granted, some of that invincibility did wear off as deGrom hit somewhat of a wall in September, with his ERA ballooning to 4.50. However, the righty still struck out 42.7% of the batters he faced, while he posted a 3.08 ERA in 11 starts with a 5-4 record. And, while he didn’t have some of his best stuff in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card series against the San Diego Padres, deGrom still limited a potent lineup to just two runs over six innings with eight strikeouts.
Overall, deGrom’s status as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball is without question, despite the fact that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for the past couple of years. However, despite the recent injury troubles, the ace proved in 2022 just how elite an arm he possesses and if he can stay off the shelf in 2023 then a third Cy Young Award could be in his very near future.
Contract
It has been a story line since last year but deGrom has remained steadfast in his intention to opt out of his current contract at the conclusion of 2022. That has never changed and the four-time All-Star will now exercise his right to test the open market and chase the big ticket offer his considerable talents clearly deserve.
Signed with the VC Sports Group, deGrom has declined to give away any clues in regards to his future, refusing to discuss any contract stuff after the Wild Card loss to the Padres. There are some reports out there that suggest the ace could look for a new challenge with a new team, with NL East rivals the Atlanta Braves firmly rooted in that conversation, while others believe deGrom would like to remain a Met.
However, the key to deGrom’s future will be the offers he receives and which one he feels is the most befitting to what he can do with a baseball in his hand. And, given what he has accomplished in the game in a short time frame, no one cam blame deGrom for wanting to get paid. You can make a very good argument right now that he’s severely underpaid for what he’s able to produce on the mound.
Let’s get to that current contract. The Mets signed deGrom to a five-year, $137.5 million extension in March 2019, though the deal itself included more than $50 million in deferments. Under the current deal, deGrom would earn $30.5 million in 2023, while the Mets also hold a club option worth $32.5 million in 2024.
We know that deGrom is looking for more than that and he could be seeking a similar deal to the one fellow ace Max Scherzer signed with the Mets last winter, which was worth $130 million over three years. Given his stunning track record and his status as one of the elite in the majors, it is feasible to predict that deGrom could get over $40 million in average annual salary from a team that needs a legit one-headed monster at the top of the rotation.
Of course, the biggest concern with deGrom is his health, especially after the last two years. Coupled with the fact that the veteran is now 34-years-old, it will be interesting to see what kind of length teams are willing to stretch to for a pitcher that may well break down at any point. Going after a star is all about risk versus reward so the upside with deGrom is obvious, but his durability can’t be ignored given the money that will be involved in any deal.
If deGrom opts to not return to Queens and decides to sign elsewhere, don’t be surprised if a three-year deal worth in the range of $130-140 million gets it done. That may well prove too expensive for the Mets who have other needs to address this coming winter too.
Recommendation
There is no denying that deGrom has been one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball over a large sample size now and what he can give you on the mound is hard to put a price on. When the ace is healthy, there is none better and he showed upon his return in 2022 why he will go down as one of the best to have ever pitched.
When you have a player that special at your disposal, you should do everything within your power to hang on to him and there is no doubt that the Mets would love to keep deGrom and retain their two-headed monster at the top of the rotation with Scherzer. With Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco all potentially free agents as well, you will lose some pitching depth but you can patch up the rest of the rotation knowing you have two juggernauts at the top of the pack.
On the flip side of this conversation, no-one will know deGrom’s injury history better than the Mets and they may feel there is a certain ceiling they are willing to go to before deciding the price is too high. After all, they do have Scherzer for at least one more year and there are other needs to address so giving millions and millions to a pitcher in their mid-30’s with a recent injury history may not be the smart play. Overall, you always want to keep your face of the franchise given how much deGrom means to this organization, not to mention that he is still an incredibly elite pitcher, but everyone has a limit and this will all depend on how much the Mets are willing to bend for their longtime ace given the huge job they have on their hands when it comes to re-tooling this roster.
