By Ryan Finkelstein
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Position: SP
Bats/Throws: R/L
Age: March 25, 1987 (32)
Traditional Stats: 14-5, 2.32 ERA, 1.007 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9, 8 K/9
Advanced Stats: 5.1 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR, 179 ERA+, 3.10 FIP
Hailing from South Korea, Hyun-Jin Ryu starred in the KBO League for seven seasons from 2006 through 2012, playing for the Hanwha Eagles. In his first season of professional baseball, Ryu pitched to a 18-6 record, with a 2.23 ERA and 205 strikeouts in 201 2/3 innings pitched. He led the league in all three marks, winning the Korean Triple Crown before leading his team to a KBO Championship.
Ryu was not only named the Rookie of the Year, but also the league MVP for his stellar performance. Ryu led the league in ERA twice (2006 and 2010), while also leading the league in strikeouts five times (2006–2007, 2009–2010, 2012). After a remarkable career in the KBO, the Eagles posted Ryu for bid in 2012. Hanwha ultimately accepted the Los Angeles Dodgers $25.7 million bid, giving them a 30-day period to try to negotiate a contract with Ryu.
The Dodgers ended up signing Ryu to a six-year, $36 million contract and inserted him into their rotation for the 2013 season. In his rookie year, Ryu made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.00 ERA across 192 innings pitched. That season, Ryu became the first South Korean-born pitcher to start an MLB postseason game.
In 2014, Ryu dealt with various injuries throughout the season, but still made 26 starts and pitched to a 3.38 ERA. Ryu then missed the entire 2015 season as he battled shoulder discomfort before finally getting season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his throwing arm. The next year, Ryu only made one start in June, but ended up having elbow discomfort which required surgery as well.
After losing two years of his career due to injuries, Ryu finally put together a healthy season in 2017, making 24 starts (and one relief appearance) for the Dodgers. He ended up pitching to a 3.77 ERA across 126 2/3 innings pitched. The next year brought more injuries for Ryu, as a groin injury limited him to just 15 starts. Across those outings, Ryu pitched to a sparking 1.97 ERA across 82 1/3 innings pitched, foreshadowing the success he would have in 2019.
Ryu established himself as a top tier pitcher by leading the National League in ERA this year. Ryu’s 2.32 ERA was not the only category that he led the NL in, as his 179 ERA+ and his walk rate (1.2 BB/9) were the best marks in the league as well.
Ryu relies on a six-pitch arsenal to keep hitters off-balance and induce soft contact. The soft-tossing lefty is one of the few pitchers that uses his changeup as a primary pitch, throwing it slightly more than his fastball (27.5% compared to 27.3%). His average exit velocity of 85.3 MPH is in the top 4% of the MLB. With his minuscule walk rate, Ryu limits traffic on the bases and relies on soft-contact to keep runs off the board.
Entering his age-33 season, this could be Ryu’s last chance to receive a significant payday on a long-term contract. Provided he stays healthy, Ryu should have no problem remaining effective in the latter stages of his career.
Contract
Hyun-jin Ryu was actually a free agent last year, but he accepted the $17.9 million qualifying offer from the Dodgers to remain in their rotation for 2019. After a great season, Los Angeles will likely extend him the qualifying offer again and there is a chance he takes the large one-year salary to remain with the club.
However, it is more likely that Ryu takes the opportunity to become a free agent after a career-year that will likely result in a top-three Cy Young finish. But if he does chose free agency, Ryu’s market may not be as robust as it would seem based on his 2019 stats.
Free agents over the age of 30 have struggled to find a market in free agency in recent years, and with Ryu’s injury history, teams will surely be wary of signing the left-hander to a long-term deal. This would be the one avenue for the Mets to sign Ryu, if they were willing to commit to signing him to a multi-year contract. A three-to-four year commitment at around $12-15 million could be enough to get a deal done.
Recommendation
With the impending departure of Zack Wheeler in free agency, the Mets have a clear hole in the rotation that needs to be filled. Internally, options like Corey Oswalt and Walker Lockett are underwhelming and transitioning Seth Lugo to the rotation would cripple a bullpen that was weak already.
Despite the need for Ryu, gambling on a starter that has never proven an ability to stay healthy is a risky proposition. For the Mets 2020 rotation, Ryu could be the most viable option in free agency towards finding a fifth starter that can replicate Wheeler’s production at a more reasonable salary.
While the upside to signing Ryu could be great, his injury history should be enough to scare the Mets away from pulling the trigger on a significant financial commitment. Ryu also had a six-start stretch from August 17th through September 22nd that saw him pitch to a 6.55 ERA, which is concerning as well when contemplating a long-term deal.
Signing Ryu would probably be met with great applause when the deal is struck, but the ramifications of that union could be felt for years to come if things go sideways.
