Greg Holland

Position: Relief Pitcher
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: November 20, 1985 (33)

Traditional Stats: 2-2, 4.66 ERA, 3 SV, 1.619 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9, 9.1 K/9
Advanced Stats: -0.2 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR, 3.83 FIP, 88 ERA+

Back in 2014, Holland was one of the biggest reasons the Kansas City Royals shocked baseball by going all the way to Game 7 of the World Series. He was the best reliever in a stacked bullpen, and he was arguably the best reliever in all of baseball. In 2015, he took a big step backward. We would discover it was because he needed Tommy John surgery.

Holland would miss the Royals World Series victory and the 2016 season. Instead of cashing in on his elite years, he found himself signing a one year $6 million deal with a second-year option to prove he could be the same pitcher. For half a season he did that. In the first half, he was an All-Star with a 1.62 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, and an 11.6 K/9.

Whether it was regression or fatigue after not pitching in well over a year, Holland did not pitch well in the second half. He would have a 6.38 ERA, and he would have a near meltdown in the Wild Card Game. Still, he had proven he was a good Major League closer, and as such, he rejected his $15 million option, and he set out to get that big free agent deal.

Perhaps it was due to his second half, or maybe it was the Rockies saddling him with the qualifying offer, but there was no one willing to give Holland the massive deal he wanted. Instead, he had to settle for another one year deal. On the eve of the 2018 season, he signed a one year deal for $14 million with the Cardinals.

Without a full Spring Training to prepare, Holland was awful with the Cardinals. After Holland posted a 7.92 ERA over 32 appearances, the Cardinals had enough, and the team released him on August 1. Within a week, a Nationals team who still believed they were a viable postseason team grabbed Holland. With the Nationals, we once again saw the 2014 Holland. In 24 appearances, he had a 0.84 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9.

What is interesting with Holland is the stuff is still there. According to Brooks Baseball, Holland threw a 96 MPH fastball and an 86 MPH slider. Over the past two seasons, he has been throwing a 94 MPH fastball with an 87 MPH slider. He has also added a curve to the mix.

When you break down the numbers, Holland’s slider remains lethal. Back in 2014, batters had a .122 average and a .194 SLG off of Holland’s slider. Over the past two years, batters are still only hitting .152 with a .229 SLG against his slider. The real issue is with Holland is without the extra two MPH, his fastball has become more hittable.

Overall, when you break it down, Holland is a pitcher who has shown both fatigue and rust for very justifiable reasons in each of the two past seasons. He has given you reason to believe he can be dominant, and he has given you cause to hesitate. He’s now on the lower end of free agent relievers available waiting out relievers like his former teammate Adam Ottavino to sign so his market can come more into focus.

Contract

What is interesting is Holland did not even crack MLB Trade Rumors top 50 free agents. In fact, he ranked lower than Jesse Chavez who signed a two year $8 million deal with the Rangers this offseason. The Chavez signing is interesting because while Chavez had a much better start to the season than Holland, both would have very similar finishes to the season.

Seeing Chavez sign for a deal with a $4 million average annual value would indicate that Holland is back where he was in 2017 when he signed a $6 million deal with an option for 2020. Given how Holland seems to be holding out for that big payday, it would seem this is the best deal he will receive.

Recommendation

With the Edwin Diaz trade and the Jeurys Familia signing, the Mets bullpen is much better, but there are still some real holes. Beyond Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, you don’t have many arms you can trust, and that’s assuming you can trust Gsellman. Assuming the Mets carry the traditional seven-man bullpen, the team still needs to find a couple more relievers.

With Brodie Van Wagenen indicating the Mets are likely done with the top end of the free agent reliever market, Holland seems to be a very good fit. Holland could certainly be enticed to come to the Mets because he would have an opportunity to once again work with Dave Eiland, who is the pitching coach who helped him become a dominant reliever.

Overall, if Holland is really looking for that one year he puts it all together so he can finally get that multi-year deal he wants, the Mets are the place for him. Given how the Mets are limited in their budget, and how they need a number of guys, this seems like a perfect fit.