Gio González

Position: Starting Pitcher
Bats/Throws: R/L
Age: September 19, 1985 (33)

Traditional Stats: 10-11, 4.21 ERA, 32 GS, 171 IP, 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
Advanced Stats: 1.8 bWAR, 2.0 fWAR, 100 ERA+, 4.16 FIP, 4.44 xFIP

As the case was for much of the Washington Nationals’ roster in 2018, Gio González could not replicate his success from the prior year, spiraling his way out of the Nationals’ long-term plans and ultimately landing with the Milwaukee Brewers via August waivers. At that point, González owned a 4.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 27 starts, with the prior three months presenting an even uglier 6.53 and 1.73, respectively.

The main culprit in González’s fall from grace was a loss of control, particularly with his changeup and curveball, as his walk and line-drive rates (11.2% and 28.8%, respectively) ranked as the highest in the National League over those three months. His 1.5 K/BB ratio in that time wasn’t particularly inspiring, either, and in many respects erased what had at first appeared a continuation of 2017 – which had been (in terms of wins above replacement) his best season since 2012.

Even in 2016 – a year in which González struggled to a 4.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP – the walk and homer numbers didn’t deviate too significantly from his career figures, which check in at 3.6 and 0.7 per nine innings dating back to 2010.

So perhaps it made for no surprise that González’s five starts with the Brewers would keep him relevant heading into the offseason. With a 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 2.20 K/BB ratio in 25.1 innings at the back of the rotation, he would be instrumental in the team’s run to the top of the NL Central.

González’s changeup combined for 3.5 runs above average in that time, serving as a solid complement to his fastball as he exploited the contrast and opponents struggled to a .156/.240/.270 line with a 13.6% line-drive rate (eighth-lowest in the majors). He walked more than two batters in just one of those five starts, though a 61% strike percentage explains more clearly why he averaged just over five innings per start in that time.

For the lefty and longtime Met killer, control remains the X-factor, as nothing exactly protects him from getting hit when he fails to locate the changeup. With that said, it’s evident that a change in scenery helped González return to form as a dependable finesse pitcher – at least as it’s also served the likes of Jhoulys Chacín and Wade Miley.

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors has predicted that González will earn roughly $12MM annually on a short-term deal akin to those of Aníbal Sánchez (two years, $19MM) and Charlie Morton (two years, $30MM). Given that the lefty has amassed at least 27 starts every year for the last nine years, it’s tough to dispute his value in the back of a rotation.

Given González’s current standing in the free agent market as the next-best starter behind Dallas Keuchel, it’s possible that clubs like the Oakland Athletics, San Diego Padres, and Chicago White Sox would reach deeper into their pockets to nab González before it’s too late. The southpaw has a pedigree that many teams will justifiably buy into should the occasion call for it. A contract along the lines of those of Lance Lynn (three years, $60MM) and J.A. Happ (two years, $34MM) are also plausible.

Recommendation

The New York Mets’ intentions to sign a starting pitcher are hazy, but conventional wisdom would point to their next acquisition contributing to the rotation in a role similar to either Steven Matz or Jason Vargas. The latter is lined up to make $8MM in 2019, with an additional $2MM headed his way should the team decline his option for 2020.

As a (perhaps unfortunate) result, a mid-rotation pitcher worth about 50% more would almost certainly force the team to ship Vargas elsewhere, which by itself would be quite a task seeing as his value has surely fallen since he first signed. Signing González would therefore cost an additional share in the form of salary that would be eaten in order to move Vargas.

There is no doubt that González would bring more to this team than either Vargas, Miley, Héctor Santiago, or Corey Oswalt would as depth pieces. With limited money to spend at this point, however, and an already-strong rotation to boot, the organization might be better off consolidating that in either a center fielder or bullpen weapon for 2019.