Freddie Freeman
Position: 1B
Bats/Throws: L/R
Age: 32 (9/12/1989)
Traditional Stats: 159 games, .300/.393/.503, 25 2B, 31 HR, 83 RBI
Advanced Stats: 135 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR, .379 WOBA
Defensive Stats: -1.0 UZR, 3 OAA
Rundown
Outside of finally winning the World Series, the 2021 season was just a typical drop in the bucket for Freddie Freeman. And when I say “drop in the bucket”, I mean it was another All-Star performance as one of the league’s best first basemen. The 32-year-old and 2020 National League MVP was voted to his fifth All-Star Game this past summer and just won his third Silver Slugger Award. The man has just been a model of elite consistency for a while now with the Braves, too.
Once he experienced his true breakout during the 2013 season, which included an .897 OPS, 150 wRC+, and 5.0 fWAR, Freeman has never turned back. Since that campaign, he hasn’t finished a year with an OPS lower than .800, a wRC+ below 130, or an fWAR less than 3.3 — he even hit all those numbers during the pandemic-shortened season of 2020. However, what has seemingly emerged throughout his prime years is his power. He did enjoy six seasons of 20-plus homers between 2011 and 2018, but just one of those years included 30-plus bombs (34 in 2016). He’s posted an ISO greater than .200 in each of the last three seasons, which has also included two campaigns of at least 30 home runs (38 in ’19 and 31 in ’21).
His first two months of the 2021 season were oddly productive, and mostly because it wasn’t in the normal way we’re used to seeing him put numbers up. Through the end of May (220 plate appearances), he slugged 12 homers with 29 RBI, 33 runs scored, a 16.4% walk rate, and a 16.8% strikeout rate, but it yielded just a 115 wRC+ and a .235/.364/.464 line. So, he was still comfortably above average, but just not at his typical levels.
And then, well, the law of averages won out. From June 1st through the end of the regular season (475 plate appearances), he slashed .329/.406/.520 with 19 home runs, 54 RBI, 87 runs scored, a 10.5% walk rate, and a 14.7% strikeout rate, which sussed out to a 144 wRC+. When it was all said and done, Freeman’s 4.5 fWAR was the fifth-best mark at his position and the third-best mark in the National League.
Contract
There’s no doubt that Freeman is the top first baseman on the free-agent market. MLB Trade Rumors ranked him the third-best available player this winter, while FanGraphs pegs him as the fifth-best. What’s interesting is the contract projections from both of these places — MLBTR is predicting a six-year, $180 million pact, while Ben Clemens of FanGraphs has him at five years and $135 million. According to recent reports, that sixth year has been a sticking point between Freeman and the Braves in contract negotiations.
It’s understandable that Atlanta would be wary of paying a high price for Freeman’s age-38 season. However, this situation has happened because the first baseman just finished what ended up being a team-friendly eight-year, $135 million extension that he signed early on in his career.
Either way, for teams interested in Freeman’s services, it’s rather clear what it’d take. The only other team that has been loosely connected to Freeman since free agency opened up is the New York Yankees, but it’s known that the first baseman doesn’t want to leave Atlanta.
Recommendation
Even with the possibility of the Universal Designated Hitter coming in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, this fit just doesn’t make sense for the New York Mets. Unless the main goal is to have the man not play against them anymore, though.
Pete Alonso is obviously entrenched at first base after another solid season and an improved campaign on defense. There’s also Dominic Smith, a natural first baseman and better fielder overall, who has been stuck playing the outfield because of Alonso’s emergence in 2019. Adding Freeman could certainly improve the Mets (especially if there’s a Universal DH), but of all the questions needing to be answered this winter, addressing first base is not one of them. For the $100-plus million it’d take to secure his services, New York would be better suited to allocate those financial resources elsewhere.
Unless something drastic happens, we’ll probably have to settle for seeing him back in Atlanta for the next few years.
