Position: LHSP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: January 1, 1988 (30)
Traditional Stats: 3.74 ERA, 204.2 IP, 1.314 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 2.6 BB/9, 6.7 K/9
Advanced Stats: 3.69 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 2.6 bWAR, 3.6 fWAR, .300 BABIP
Dallas Keuchel’s 2018 campaign was a far cry from his American League Cy Young Award-winning campaign in 2015.
Although he led the league and set a career-high in games started (34), the 30-year-old southpaw saw his stat line take dips across the board. Over 204.2 innings, Keuchel pitched to a 3.74 earned-run average with a 3.69 fielding independent pitching rating, a career-high 1.314 WHIP, and 2.64 strikeouts-to-walks.
After putting up a 2.69 ERA over 62 starts between 2014 and 2015, Keuchel’s stats ballooned in 2016, owning a 4.55 ERA over 26 starts in an injury-shortened season.
His 2017 year was outstanding (14-5, 2.90 ERA, 125 strikeouts, 47 walks in 145.2 innings), yet Keuchel was still bothered by injuries, making just 23 starts — his lowest total since his 2012 rookie season (16).
Heading into free agency, the left-hander is said to have at least a half-dozen suitors all vying for his services. Time will tell if Keuchel’s inconsistencies over the last couple of years will affect his value on the open market.
Contract
After making $13.2 million last season, as well as carrying along with him a solid track record, Dallas Keuchel is almost certainly looking at a substantial raise.
Spotrac has his value pegged at an average annual salary of $22.4 million over five years ($111.8 million). Whether his troubles in 2018 will factor into the soon-to-be 31-year-old’s take-home over the next few seasons will be determined shortly.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe listed Milwaukee, Texas, and the Angels as potential suitors, and the Padres, Reds, Nats, Braves, Phillies, and Nationals have also been linked to Keuchel.
Recommendation
Unless the New York Mets decide to move on from their fifth starter, Jason Vargas, or either of their middle-of-the-rotation hurlers in Zack Wheeler or Steven Matz, it’s highly unlikely that we’ll be seeing Dallas Keuchel in Queens in anything but a road uniform anytime soon.
The Phillies have been quite outspoken about their intentions to bring in a frontline starting pitcher this offseason, so they’d have to be included as a favorite.
Houston would appear to be a possible destination considering the draft picks attached to Keuchel, who turned down the $17.9 million qualifying offer extended his way last month.
