MMO Free Agent Profile: Carlos Rodón, SP

Carlos Rodón, SP

Throws/Bats: L/R
Date of Birth: 10/10/1992 (Age: 29)

Traditional Stats: 24G, 13-5, 2.37, 132.2 IP, 185 SO, 0.957 WHIP
Advanced Stats: 5.0 bWAR, 4.9 fWAR, 183 ERA+, 2.65 FIP, 2.4 BB/9, 12.6 K/9

Rundown

After Noah Syndergaard’s surprising departure from the Mets to the Halos earlier this offseason, I wrote in my free agent preview of fellow righty Marcus Stroman that I thought the club needed to shell out big money for starting pitcher like Stroman to buy some level of certainty for their rotation. Stroman, I wrote, might not have had the upside of Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman, but he came with a track record of health and consistent performance that was nearly unparalleled by his fellow free agent brethren.

Well, everything changed when the Mets went where no baseball club ever had gone before to sign Max Scherzer to an eye-popping contract worth more than $43 million per season. In Scherzer, the Mets get one of the best pitchers in his generation, who somewhat miraculously still appears to be operating at the peak of his powers at age 37.

Still, reports indicate that the Mets are not done adding to their rotation. And they shouldn’t be. The Mets’ 40-man roster currently counts Jacob DeGrom, Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Trevor Williams and Jordan Yamamoto as its only realistic starting pitching options heading into 2022. The Mets would ideally count the latter four as potential depth pieces, best suited to make spot starts in a pinch, rather than be relied upon every fifth day. There are questions abound at the top of the rotation as well. DeGrom will enter 2022 having pitched only 92 innings in the season prior due to various ailments, including to his pitching arm. Carrasco only tossed 53.2 major league innings in 2021, to the tune of an unsightly 6.04 ERA after missing a large portion of the season due to hamstring woes.

Though he has yet to be widely connected with the Mets in the rumor mill, Carlos Rodón presents an intriguing, high-upside option for the club to consider. The burly left-hander comes off a very impressive 2021, which saw him posts career best rates in virtually every category aside from innings pitched. Rodón comes with an intriguing pedigree as well, as the White Sox made him the 3rd overall pick in the amateur draft back in 2014. Coming out of North Carolina State, Rodón was viewed as a potential first overall pick and front of the rotation workhorse who would move quickly through the minors – and move quickly he did. Rodón debuted in April 2015, less than a calendar year after he was drafted. Rodón compiled a solid, if somewhat unspectacular, 3.75 ERA in his debut season.

Rodón never really improved from there, however, as injuries and inconsistency have plagued the North Carolina native ever since. In fact, since starting 28 games and pitching 165 innings in 2016, Rodón has never pitched more than the 132.2 innings he pitched in 2021. Between 2017 and 2020, a span of four seasons (including the pandemic shortened 2020 season), Rodón pitched in only 43 games and threw only 232.1 innings. And even when he has been on the mound, Rodón had generally not been the dominant force many pundits had projected him to be coming out of college. Excluding the 2020 season (during which Rodón threw only 7.2 innings), Rodón posted an ERA+ of between 89 and 104 during every season of his career prior to his 2021 breakout.

It is easy to see why Rodón was so successful in 2021. Rodón posted career bests in both K% (34.6%) and BB% (6.7%), rates which left him in the 96th and 73rd percentiles in those categories, respectively. Moreover, Rodón averaged a career best 95.4 MPH average on his four-seam fastball in 2021. It is likely no coincidence that Rodón used threw that fastball nearly 59% of the time last season, a sharp uptick from his previous career high of 51.6% in 2019. His fastball also ranked in the 62nd percentile among major leaguers in spin rate in 2021, after never ranking higher than the 50^th percentile in that category in any season prior.

Moreover, his underlying metrics back up his impressive to 2.73 ERA. In addition to his 2.65 FIP, Rodón ranked in the 90th percentile or better in each of the following categories: xwOBA, xBA, xOBP, xSLG and xERA. That Rodón performed so well relative to his peers in these statistics is directly indicative of the weak contact he was able to induce last season, and supports the idea that his numbers last season were no fluke.

Still, Rodón’s injury history is worth noting. As was mentioned above, he has never thrown more than 165 innings in a season – which he did in 2016, his second season in the bigs. Last year’s total – 132.2 – was actually his highest (by far) since his sophomore campaign. In 2017, Rodón made just 12 starts (69.1 IP) before his season was curtailed by left shoulder inflammation. The same injury limited Rodón to 20 starts (120.2 IP) in 2018. In 2019, Rodón underwent Tommy John surgery after seven starts. And in 2020, he threw just 7.2 big-league innings before being non-tendered by the White Sox at the end of the year.

Even during last year’s breakout, Rodón experienced shoulder fatigue during the season’s second half, and failed to throw more than 90 pitches in any outing after July 18. Furthermore, he averaged more than 96 MPH on his fastball through July 18th, but only 94.1 MPH hour from that point on.  For the season, Rodón pitched on four days of rest only six times. This has led some to suggest that Rodón might be best served in six-man rotation. The southpaw also has dealt with Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery in the past.

Contract

Rodón, who will pitch all of next season at 29 years old, presents an intriguing free agency case, given his impressive pedigree and tantalizing upside, coupled with his past health woes. MLB Trade Rumors predicted the lefty would sign for 1 year and $25 million. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post predicted a smaller AAV over a longer contract term, as he had Rodón returning to the White Sox for 5 years and $75 million.

Rodón is represented by The Boras Corporation. The White Sox did not give Rodón a qualifying offer, and any team that signs him would not forfeit a pick in so doing.

Recommendation

The Mets bought certainty – albeit at a very high price – with Scherzer. Now, they can potentially afford the luxury of a lottery ticket arm like Rodón’s. Signing the southpaw would give the Mets a five-man rotation that could rival any in the majors in terms of stuff and upside. It would also leave the Mets with solid depth by bumping the quartet of Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto and Trevor Williams to depth roles.

However, signing Rodón would be a somewhat risky proposition. As the predictions alluded to above make clear, Rodón is not likely to come cheap. And any team that signs him should be realistic about their expectations of how often – and for how long – Rodón can take the ball. It appears unlikely based on his track record that Rodón will be an every fifth day workhorse, at least in 2022. But in the right situation, a smart team might be able to maximize his effectiveness with strategic time off, or, say, getting creative with openers. The way Rich Hill has been deployed and load managed, to steal a term from NBA parlance, comes to mind as a potential Rodón roadmap.

I particularly like the idea of signing Rodón and paring him with another veteran starter, (e.g., Carlos Martinez), who is comfortable jumping between the rotation and bullpen, and spelling Rodón when necessary. And who wouldn’t want an arm like Rodón’s come October, when the going gets tough and power stuff wins teams close games?

Put simply, in any potential pursuit of Rodón, the Mets need to weigh the pitcher’s tantalizing potential against the likelihood that he will not be able to take the ball and go deep into games every fifth day. There is certainly a strong case to be made that given the uncertainty surrounding the health of DeGrom and Carrasco, among others, the Mets might be better served spending on a more dependable starter. However, if the Mets are comfortable enough with the depth they have amassed (and hopefully continue to amass in the coming months) behind the arms already mentioned, Rodón is an exciting fit as a guy who can really dominate opposing lineups when he is on his game.

If the Mets can sign Rodón on a one-year deal with a bloated AAV (i.e., if Steve Cohen can foot an even greater luxury tax bill in 2022), it would be a worthwhile gamble.