Brandon Nimmo

Position: CF
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 29 (3/17/1993)
2022 Traditional Stats: 151 G, 673 PA, .274/.367/.433, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 10.6 BB%, 17.2 SO%
2022 Advanced Stats: 134 wRC+, 5.4 fWAR, 5.0 bWAR, .317 BABIP, .159 ISO, 40% HardHit

Rundown

In the 2011 MLB draft, the Mets decided to take a chance on a high-upside outfielder from Cheyenne, Wyoming, named Brandon Nimmo. As Wyoming is one of the three states that does not offer high school baseball, Nimmo was forced to play in the American Legion baseball circuit. In 2010, he batted .448 with 15 home runs in 70 games. This performance convinced Sandy Alderson to draft the young outfielder with the 13th pick, making Nimmo the first player from Wyoming to be drafted in the first round in MLB history.

After signing with the Mets and foregoing his commitment to play at the University of Arkansas, Nimmo embarked on a five-year journey in the minor leagues. In those five years, he participated in the 2013 future stars game and was named a top 100 prospect prior to the 2015 minor league season.

Nimmo made his MLB debut in 2016 and was subpar. He demonstrated his ability to walk but the previous power he had shown prior to the draft did not translate. After playing in only 32 games in his first year, the organization became concerned with Nimmo’s health. He struggled to put together consecutive healthy seasons and in 2017, 2019, and 2021, he played in less than 100 games. However, when healthy, Nimmo was one of the best leadoff hitters in the majors. In 2018, he finished with the fourth-highest OBP in MLB and recorded a 148 OPS+. This year proved to be another great season for Nimmo as he scored 102 runs and led the NL in triples.

Another concern with Nimmo was his defense. After making the switch to center field in 2020, he became a defensive liability. However, Nimmo drastically improved defensively once the Mets analytics department suggested he play further back in the outfield and cemented himself as an above-average fielder. His defense in 2022 was in the 91st percentile with six outs above average.

While his tenure in Queens was riddled with injuries, Nimmo proved to be one of the best leadoff hitters in MLB when healthy. For his career, the 29-year-old is slashing .269/.385/.441 with a 134 wRC+ over 608 games.

Contract

Nimmo was signed to a one-year, $7 million deal through arbitration for the 2022 season. It was his last year of service time with the Mets and he is now an unrestricted free agent.

According to sportrac.com, Nimmo’s market value is at 14.1 million AAV. They project him to sign a four-year, $56 million deal.

However, the center field market is thin this year. Every free agent center fielder is above the age of 30 and are significant offensive downgrades over Nimmo. The demand for the Mets centerfielder will be high and his price tag will be driven up. A realistic contract for Nimmo would be closer to five-years, $100 million.

Recommendation

The Mets should prioritize Nimmo going into the 2022 off-season. He was a staple for the Mets team and recorded the third-highest fWAR amongst position players. Nimmo also played every single one of his games in center field and demonstrated his ability to save runs.

Nimmo has also stated that he would like to return to the Mets. After the Padres eliminated the Mets in the 2022 playoffs, he stated his interest in returning to the organization and that his history with the Mets would be a factor in re-signing.

It would be virtually impossible to replace Nimmo in center field for the 2023 season if the Mets let him walk. The only notable prospect the Mets have that can play center in the minors is Jake Mangum, but he’s projected to be more of a fourth outfielder, and the next best free agent center fielder is arguably Kevin Kiermaier. Of course, the Mets could sign Aaron Judge and shift Starling Marte to center field, though that would certainly require a large amount of the Mets budget for a team that has a long list of free agents this offseason.