Brad Hand, LHP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 30 (3/20/1990)
Traditional Stats: 2-1, 16 saves, 23 games, 22 IP, 2.05 ERA
Advanced Stats: 11.86 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, 1.37 FIP, 3.83 xFIP, 1.1 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR
Rundown
The Indians deciding to waive Brad Hand and get out of paying him $10 million caught some by surprise. Hand was a failed starter in Miami and the Padres took a flier on a relatively hard throwing lefty and decided to stick him in the bullpen. Hand rewarded them by becoming one of the best relievers in the game during the 2016 season. Hand parlayed his successful transition to the bullpen into a contract extension with the Padres and some All-Star appearances. Meanwhile, the Padres parlayed his success into a trade with the Indians. They dealt Hand and Adam Cimber to a win-now Cleveland team for top prospect, Fransisco Mejia. Hand’s numbers in Cleveland have still be good but all his peripherals backed by the eye test would suggest that he’s not the same guy that he was in San Diego. To put it more concisely, I’m not surprised that the Indians cut him.
Here are all the numbers have trended in the wrong direction for Hand since 2017: velocity, chase rate, swinging strike rate, win probability added, barrel percentage, expected FIP, LOB%, hard hit%, and his GB%. Hand’s numbers this year look so sparkly largely due to the fact he did not allow a single HR. FIP is very dependent on HR/FB ratio and in Hand’s case, it was 0. These numbers don’t typically take a massive turn in the positive direction, especially with relievers who have been used as heavily as Hand has been over the last few seasons.
The good news for Hand is that left handed pitchers always have value in baseball. Oliver Perez is probably pitching again in 2021 at the age of 40. I should also add, Hand is on the downtrend but that doesn’t mean he can’t be productive. He can still potentially be a 1-1.5 win reliever, sort of like how Mark Melancon‘s career has progressed. At the very least, his 2020 season showed that he’s capable of having dominant stretches from time to time. The problem with relievers is that their declines can be sudden and out of nowhere. Andrew Miller, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia are the relievers off the top of my head who’s production fell off a cliff.
Contract
Well no team in baseball wanted him at a one-year, $10 million commitment. Craig Edwards is predicting he’ll get a two-year deal worth $16-$20 million. Craig wrote this before finding out if Hand got claimed on waivers or not. I can’t imagine Hand will get $20 million if not team was willing to claim him. I think he’s either looking at a one-year prove it deal that is heavy on incentives or he’s probably going to get two-years and $12-$14 million. Another option is a heavier base salary for 2021 and a team option for 2022.
Recommendation
The Wilpons are gone which means we can make decisions without thinking solely about the cost of acquisition. Sandy Alderson himself said Hand would have been someone they would have targeted had the sale been closed earlier. I think Hand is an option to keep open but I am always of the belief that you should find your own failed starter and turn him into a reliever as opposed to trying to pay a premium for relievers. It’s a volatile position and a reliever’s value can decrease as quickly as it can increase.
If we’re in January and Hand is willing to take a prove it deal, then go for it Sandy, do it. However, I think there are better relievers and pitchers who might provide some more upside on the market at this current moment.
