Position: LHRP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 33 (5/21/1985)
Traditional Stats: 2-4, 4.24 ERA, 34 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 11.9 K.9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2 SV
Advanced Stats: 0.2 bWAR, 0.4 fWAR, 3.51 FIP, 104 ERA+
Miller moved to the bullpen full time in 2012 and has been one of the most dominant relievers in the game since. Miller has essentially been emblematic of the growing trend in baseball. He’s capable of going multiple innings and he pitches anywhere in the game.
The numbers from 2015-2017 really speak for themselves. Miller had a 267 ERA+ in 198.2 innings, a 14.4 K/9, and a 1.93 FIP. He also had an epic performance in the 2016 postseason. He, Cody Allen, and Terry Francona essentially took the Indians (whose rotation that was trotting out Josh Tomlin and Ryan Merritt) to the World Series.
Had he been a free agent after 2017, he likely would have gotten 80 million or more. The 2018 season is why the Mets are even in his market. He had a 0.00 ERA in April with a 1.56 FIP and 15.3 K/9. The numbers tanked from there due to leg injuries and a shoulder impingement. He came back for the playoffs but was also bad then. A good sign for Miller was that his velocity got back up towards the end of the season.
Contract
Miller could settle for a one-year, prove it deal but at 33 (entering his 34 season) it does not seem likely. He is probably looking at two or three years with an average annual value of eight or nine million. It’s a high risk, high reward type contract. The workload might be a concern and so are the health problems that he has dealt with. Jon Heyman predicted one-year, $13 million while his expert said two years, $20 million.
Recommendation
Miller is one of my favorite players ever. I think the Mets would be well served to make a run at him. His average annual salary is not that much lower than Jerry Blevins and there is no reason that Miller can’t be better than him. The Mets need to rework their bullpen with guys that can go multiple innings and pitch in high leverage spots, both things Miller has done successfully in the past.
