Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Position: LHP
Bats/Throws: R/L
Age: 6/17/1990 (31)

Traditional Stats: 71 G, 2-4, 1.83 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 5 SV, 64 K, 68 IP
Advanced Stats: 2.9 WAR, 2.98 FIP, 24.1 K%, 7.1 BB%

Rundown

Andrew Chafin was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB Draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. He began his career as a starter and after a few successful minor league campaigns, received a cup of coffee in the big leagues towards the end of 2014.

He was quickly transformed into more of a reliever the next season, and he ended up having a very solid year. Chafin made 66 appearances out of the Diamondbacks bullpen and posted a 2.76 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 75 innings.

Like most of the 69-93 Diamondbacks, Chafin struggled the following year. He made just 32 appearances and posted a 6.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and had 28 strikeouts over 22 innings. Despite the struggles, Chafin allowed just one home run on the season.

The southpaw bounced back in 2017 with a 71 appearance campaign. He allowed just five home runs, issued just 11 walks, and struck out 61 batters while posting a 3.51 ERA in 51 innings.

He made 77 appearances each of the next two seasons, pitched to a combined 3.44 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, and struck out 121 batters. With the three batter rule being put into place, Chafin struggled during their first half of the 2020 season.

He was traded to the Cubs at the deadline, where he put together a decent small sample size. He re-signed with Chicago on a one-year, $2.25 million deal with a mutual option for this season during the offseason.

Chafin returned to his old dominant form during the first half of the year. He was again traded at the deadline, this time to the Oakland Athletics, where he continued his strong 2021 campaign.

He finished the year with 70+ appearances again (71) and posted a career-low 1.83 ERA. He also recorded a 0.93 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, 64 strikeouts, issued 19 walks, and allowed just four home runs.

Chafin is coming off another strong year and is entering free agency still at just 31-years old. He relies on four pitches; low-90s sinker, low 90s fastball, mid 80s slider, and mid 80s changeup.

Contract

Prior to the lockout, the Mets were reportedly one of the teams showing interest in the talented southpaw. Chafin will certainly have a ton of teams lining up to bring him in as soon as the lockout ends.

He figures to be in line to receive a pretty payday this offseason. As I mentioned above, Chafin signed a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Cubs this past offseason.

Fangraphs projects he’ll receive a two-year deal worth around $10 million. I could see something like that with a potential team option for the third year, or even a straight-up three-year deal. 

Chafin is represented by Meister Sports Management, some of their other clients include Brett Gardner, Chris Taylor, Sergio Romo, and Cody Allen amongst others.

Recommendation

Easily one of the biggest holes remaining on this Mets roster is at left-handed reliever. The loss of Aaron Loup to the Los Angeles Angels is certainly going to be a big one after his historic 2021 campaign.

There are a handful of talented southpaws out there on the market, but Chafin should certainly be at the top of the Mets’ list. While there might be some decline from last season, Chafin would provide a great boost to this Mets bullpen.

Putting aside the pandemic shortened season, Chafin has been a relatively productive reliever his whole career. He’s been tremendous at limiting both the home runs (0.6 HR/9) and walks (3.6 BB/9) over his eight seasons.

He’s also been very effective against lefties, having allowed just seven home runs and a .593 OPS for his career. That will play very well in a division full of some big-time left-handed sluggers.

Chafin is coming off a career year and has been relatively productive and durable almost every other season prior to that. ‘Big Country’ also comes with a big personality, that will be loved by Mets fans.

Chafin should definitely be one of Billy Eppler and company’s top targets once the lockout ends. However, if they do end up missing out on him some other guys to keep an eye on include Tony Watson, Jake Diekman, and Brad Hand.