An MMO Fan Shot by Joey D.
While I expect the Mets to take a significant step forward this season, I have to disagree with the case many make for the Mets based on their run differential last season.
Run differential numbers are useless because of the missing nuts and bolts that are hidden behind it. I will refer to the St. Louis Cardinals who put up equivalent marks as we did in run scoring, runs allowed and fielding. They won 90 games playing a tougher schedule, eleven more wins than we had. Why was that?
It’s because tallying accumulated runs mean very little. I’ve been saying this often of late but it needs to be repeated. Bobby Ojeda said he doesn’t care about the total amounts of runs scored/allowed, it’s the how and when that’s important.
The Mets’ run production was not consistent. They would bunch many of their runs into a few games. They were not reliable to score enough on a day-in and day-out basis, and to churn out runs against tough pitching. Do we forget all the times we were cursing because they lost a tough low scoring game? How often they stranded runners in scoring position? How many times a starter would walk off the mound after a fine performance with either a no decision or being on the losing end to show for it? All those one run losses?
The Cardinals did not have that type of problem. That’s why one has to look beyond the numbers. They had what it took to produce runs proficiently throughout the long 162 game schedule. They would put the ball in play to make things happen, not take pitches hoping to get a better one later in the count. They would move runners along, make productive outs, get the runners in when they needed them.
That run differential had it where the Cardinals should have been an 83 game winner this past year and the Mets an 82 game winner. The Cardinals won 90 and we won just 79 because of what was behind those numbers, or lacking in the Mets’ case.
A Pythagorean explanation would be that the Cardinals got too many breaks and were too lucky and the Mets weren’t lucky at all. But is that really the case and were the Mets really on par with the Cardinals offensively last season? The Cardinals had seven regulars who had a 2.0 WAR or better last season. The Mets had four. The Cardinals had five everyday players with a 110 OPS+ or higher last season. The Mets had Duda and Murphy.
This is why there is such a divide between the saber supporters and those like me who could be called traditionalists. It’s not so much the numbers or the stats, it’s the misuse of that information to make a case for something that isn’t.
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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Joey D. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to us at [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
