An MMO Fan Shot by Doug S.
The New York Mets finally have an owner willing to spend money in the offseason and by a lucky confluence, many of the top free agents meet the team’s needs.
There are several top quality players that could benefit the team immensely. That isn’t to say there’s any perfect matches, however.
Each of free agents that should interest the Mets have issues that should cause concern. So, in a variation of the 3 Up, 3 Down series of positives and negatives taken from in-season series, here are pros and cons for each of the free agents that the Mets should be looking into.
You’ll notice that none of the negatives involve cost; with reduced revenues this year it’s hard to predict the free agent market but you can be sure these top players will all receive top dollar contracts.
Trevor Bauer
3 UP
One two punch. By picking up Bauer, the Mets would have the winners of the last three Cy Young awards. Bauer won the Cy Young this year with an impressive 1.73 ERA and led the National League in several categories including ERA and WHIP. Combined with Jacob deGrom, the Mets would have two dominant starters in the rotation that any team would be hard pressed to match.
Hole in the rotation. You would have a difficult time arguing that the priority for the Mets isn’t improving a rotation that finished 26th in the majors with a 5.37 ERA even with deGrom. For next year, after deGrom, there are a lot of question marks. Having Marcus Stroman for the year will help but how effective will he be after sitting out 2020. There’s no telling when Noah Syndergaard will be back after Tommy John surgery and David Peterson did fine as a rookie but has pitched only 49 innings in the majors. Even if Bauer doesn’t match his Cy Young statistics, he’s an innings eater that will greatly improve the rotation.
Best option. Trevor Bauer is the top starting pitcher on the market and it’s not really close. Jake Odorizzi threw 13 innings in 2020 and doesn’t have the track record of Bauer. Masahiro Tanaka has elbow concerns and is more likely to return to the Yankees than the Mets. Taijuan Walker has thrown 67 major league innings in three years. Those three, as well as others, are possibilities for the back end of the rotation but outside of a costly trade, Bauer is the only pitcher that truly changes the Met’s rotation.
3 DOWN
Just how good is he? Bauer’s Cy Young year was in this crazy shortened season of only 11 starts. Short season sample? Only 2 of his 11 starts were against teams that ended with a winning record. He also had a very nice 2018, pitching to a 2.21 ERA in 213 innings and making the All-Star game. Except for 2018 and 2020, the remainder of his career has been unexceptional, never pitching to an ERA under 4.00. Would the Mets be acquiring a co-ace behind deGrom or a #3-4 starter?
Pay the man. Bauer has lucked into good timing, being the only top quality pitcher on the market this offseason. In the past he has stated that he would only do one-year contracts but has recently softened on that stance. There will be competition for his services and Bauer will be looking for a very sizable contract. For the same yearly salary that Bauer will be looking for, the Mets may be better served signing two or three starters to fill the rotation.
Big personality. Bauer is well known for being vocal and making his thoughts known via social media. Fans may enjoy this, but it can wear thin on teammates over time. How will Bauer take to being the second best pitcher behind deGrom and how will deGrom feel if Bauer gets a bigger contract for lesser results? Cohesion in the clubhouse can be overrated (the ’86 Mets won the World Series with some players that couldn’t stand one another) but it could have a detrimental effect nonetheless.
J.T. Realmuto
3 UP
Top at the position. Realmuto is the best catcher in the game today with a combination of offense and defense. He’s an All Star, a gold glove winner and for the last three years he’s been at the top or close to it for every offensive category for his position, including WAR, average, homer, RBIs, runs, etc. There’s no real weakness to his game.
The Mets need a catcher. In fact, a good argument can be made for the Mets needing two catchers. They have 3 catchers on the 40-man roster, and none are impressive. Tomas Nido has the most experience in the majors (albeit 96 games across four seasons) and has a combined batting average of .197 and OPS of .553. Ali Sanchez has 9 at bats at the major league level and has played only 21 games at the AAA level. And he hasn’t shown much in the way of offense throughout the minor leagues. Patrick Mazeika is 27 and has never played above AA ball. Highly touted prospect Francisco Alvarez is years away from the majors. The other catchers on the market aren’t close to Realmuto’s level both offensively and defensively so since the Mets need a catcher, why not get the best one they can?
Added bonuses. By signing Realmuto, inter division rival Phillies get worse while the Mets get better.
He’s got a great arm; in 2019 he led the majors with a terrific 47% caught stealing rate. He’s bound to help a Mets staff that has been woefully deficient in holding runners. A catcher is often the leader of a team; having a respected good fielding veteran at catcher can only have a positive effect both on the field and in the clubhouse. J.T. is even a good athlete and baserunner (for a catcher of course) and should have more stolen bases than several other position players.
3 DOWN
Age. Realmuto will be 30 years old at the start of next season. Catchers in general do not age well. It’s rare when a catcher continues the same level of production well into his thirties. Realmuto missed games this year due to a hip flexor strain which is cause for concern.
The position. Realmuto should be expected to catch only 120 games on so barring injury. That’s a quarter of the games where he’s not playing catcher, negating all of the plusses of his defense. He’s played a few games at first in his career, but the Mets should be set at that position with Alonso and Smith. Likewise, Realmuto could DH (if the National League has that this year), but that’s also not a need for the Mets.
Relativity. Realmuto is a terrific hitter for a catcher but if you take into account all positions, he’s not as good as other possible players like Springer and LeMahieu. There aren’t many great catchers in the game today, in fact there aren’t many that are even very good. The Mets may be able to get a good defensive catcher for a fraction of the cost of Realmuto and not be far behind most other teams as far as production from the catcher position. That cost savings may be better spent on other positions.
George Springer
3 UP
A Big Bat. Springer instantly adds a middle of the order bat in the lineup. Like Realmuto, he’s a right hander that would help balance a Mets team that is overly lefthanded. In fact, he has a lifetime OPS of .899 against lefties. Springer doesn’t seem to be slowing down, having made the All-Star game in the last three full seasons.
The Mets could use a centerfielder. Brandon Nimmo is a fine hitter but is misused at centerfield. Nimmo has a lifetime DRS of – 14 in center and + 5 in left. Springer on the other hand has a lifetime DRS of +14 in center. Nimmo would move to left where he’s more than adequate and would lessen the need for Dominic Smith in the outfield where he is less than adequate. Bringing Springer to the Mets greatly improves the outfield defense in multiple positions.
Postseason experience. Every Mets fan wants the team to make the playoffs and what could be better than adding a postseason star. Springer is a past World Series MVP and has a postseason OPS of .895 and an incredible World Series OPS of 1.295. The Mets would be adding a player who absolutely shines in the postseason.
3 DOWN
Is he a centerfielder? Springer has done well in centerfield but has actually played right field almost twice as much in his career. Centerfield produces more wear and tear over a full season and Springer is 31. Having to move to a corner position greatly decreases his value and puts the Mets in the same position they are in now, needing a centerfielder.
Contract length. Springer will no doubt look for a long-term contract and a significant one at that. The Mets have other outfield candidates that can play outfield to some degree including Michael Conforto, who will soon become a free agent if the Mets don’t offer him a contract. The Mets have several other players that will eventually be making big money in arbitration and you may be sacrificing one of them in the future for Springer.
Tarnished past. Springer was involved in the Astros’ sign stealing scandal. One can cast doubt on the truth of his impressive stats. That and his age may give doubt whether he can duplicate his past performance in the future on a new team.
DJ LeMahieu
3 UP
Batting champ. LeMahieu won the AL batting title this year, batting .364 and also hit .327 in 2019. He would instantly improve any lineup and as with Realmuto and Springer, would help an overly lefty Mets team, having a lifetime.856 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
Open position. With Robinson Cano being out for 2021, there’s an assumption that Jeff McNeil would be the primary second baseman, leaving third base open. J. D. Davis is certainly a possibility, but he had a down 2020 following an impressive 2019. And his defense is certainly suspect, having a -19 lifetime DRS at third. Luis Guillorme has a nice glove but despite an improved 2020, is usually viewed as a light hitter. Shifting Amed Rosario or Andres Giminez just puts a player out of their position.
New York experience. Having played two years in the Bronx, LeMahieu would not need to adapt to playing in New York. He’s also played eight seasons in the NL so no adapting to a new league. LeMahieu, who can play multiple positions, should be able to slot in easily as needed in the Mets lineup.
3 DOWN
Not in Yankee Stadium/Coors Field anymore. LeMahieu has played his home games at two notorious hitters parks his entire career. He has a worrisome OPS split of .873 at home and .699 away. Over the last two years LeMahieu has obviously taken advantage of Yankee stadium, an advantage that would vanish at Citifield. His gawdy numbers as a Yankee (1.042 OPS in Yankee stadium) could disappear as a Met.
Age and contract. LeMahieu is reportedly seeking a five-year contract. It remains to be seen if he is offered that, but LeMahieu is 32 and would be playing into his mid thirties for his next team. Although he had a banner year in 2020, it would not be unusual for him to start regressing in both offense and defense.
New York Competition. LeMahieu is also reportedly favoring returning to the Yankees. And with good reason- why would a player want to leave a team where he has done so well? The Mets would probably have to significantly outbid the Yankees. And although the Yankees may be looking to shed payroll, they’ve always been a big market team and competing against them for someone who has arguably been their best player for the last two years seems like an expensive proposition.
So there you have it: four players that instantly improve the Mets but who each have reasons to be wary.
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This MMO Fan Shot was contributed by diehard Mets fan Doug S.
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