An MMO Fan Shot by The Hammer
This season has produced three, young All-Stars, a ROY and home run king in Pete Alonso, a potential Cy Young winner, the emergence of Seth Lugo in the pen, the hit machine JD Davis, and five players smashing 20 or more home runs – yet the team still fell short of the postseason. That’s hard to do.
As most astute fans are aware, a baseball season is a marathon of 162 games, But my interest is always piqued whenever I hear fans (or writers) pointing to one series (Cubs),one game (Giants), one pitcher (Diaz), an avoidable blown-save (11-10 vs WAS), or one of the devastating walk-off’s we’ve witnessed as the primary reasons we fell short.
From my perspective, that’s baseball, every single game is important, and teams collectively, and players individually, grind through the roller-coaster ups and downs of a long season. The good teams (and good players) work through the adversity. The 2019 Mets squad was particularly frustrating because either the pitching betrayed the offense, or the offense shorted out when there was good pitching.
Anyway, 86 wins is a decent season, but well short of a postseason berth. Before the season, Mets GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, set the bar at 92 wins. Had the club attained that win total, the team would have been in the mix for a WC game, but still short of the division. The reasons for this shortfall are no doubt being dissected by the FO for the 2020 season. Diaz was not the only problem.
As a team game, identifying some of the reasons for losses requires a holistic approach, one that examines all aspects of team performance – pitching, hitting, defense, base running, and fundamentals. I highlight several glaring issues – I’m sure there are some I’m missing – that underscore the deeper issues with the club than just the BP – which is in need of an intervention.
OFFENSE
Yes, the offense. Setting a number of team records in offensive categories in this live ball era, we still couldn’t muster the hits and runs needed to get Jacob DeGrom maybe five more wins. First Matt Harvey, and now DeGrom – it’s almost like a Mets curse – it’s so insidious and incomprehensible. So, for those that look at blown saves and walk-offs, ask yourself where we would be if the Mets had scored some runs when Jacob was on the mound. DeGrom had 13 no decisions, the team lost 18 games when Degrom started, and five wins were lost (by the BP) after he faced his last batter.
The Fundamentals: Base-running, bunting, RISP, grounding into double plays, men LOB, sacrifice flies – the Mets are in the bottom third of the league in all of these categories. This is on the players, coaches, and the organization. Good teams figure a way to manufacture runs when their offense is stalled.
A side note: continually batting Cano in the 3-hole early in the season when he was struggling was a detriment to the club. I don’t know if his hands were hurt, but this was clearly not the same Cano we saw in ST. In the 3-hole, Cano has 57 games (242 PA’s) and a measly .641 OPS. In the 4 or 5-hole combined, 39 games (145 PA’s), he’s well over .800 OPS.
A second side note: Injuries have also played a role in the offensive production. The inordinate number of AB’s afforded to Lagares, Gomez, and Altherr when Nimmo went down was a bitter pill to swallow. Don’t get me started on Todd Frazier taking AB’s away from JD Davis.
MICKEY CALLAWAY
It’s always difficult to accredit wins or loses to any manager, especially with the countless in-game scenarios that could alter the outcome of a game. So, for fairness sake, let’s say the good managers are a 3 wins, and the bad managers are 3 losses. I’m of the unshakable opinion Mickey deducts 3 games. I am more than willing to have this debate for those on the fence.
THE BULLPEN
I would not have called it a strength of the team, but it sure looked damned respectable on the back-end – with Justin Wilson, Lugo, Jeurys Famila, and Edwin Diaz. Well, we all know how Diaz’s first year in orange and blue went. And Familia’s impersonation of Rick Ankiel was equally troubling. Yes, Diaz led the league with 15 HR’s in the 9th inning.
The Mets BP gave up a MLB record 36 dingers in the 9th or later. But looking around the league, the Mets were not the only team with BP struggles. In fact, in almost every relief metric, the Mets were right around league average, and the BP really got it in gear after the All-Star break. In comparison, the Nats had a far worse BP than the Mets – and yet still won 93 games and are hosting the WC game.
The Nats had 33 losses in relief this year, Mets and Brewers had 32, Cubs had 31. The Dodgers, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all had more Blown Saves than the Mets 28. Yet it’s hard to dismiss the parade of walks, the inexplicable 9th inning home runs, and walk-off losses accrued by the bullpen. An intervention is sorely needed.
THE DEFENSE
The 2019 Mets finished bottom 5 in team defensive metrics. Not totally unexpected, but it still hurts, and definitely should count toward the losses we fell short. Recall that BVW emphasized the importance of being “strong up the middle,” which I wholeheartedly agreed with. Solid at SS and 2B, 3B, and RF, ironically, the biggest defensive question marks going into the season were CF, C, LF, and 1B (despite the growing pains – Pete Alonso has shown me enough to feel he will be a defensive asset going forward).
With Brandon Nimmo as our CF, and Ramos as our catcher – we were less than “strong” up the middle. Then there was the Amed Rosario streak of errors. Personally, I have never seen anything like Rosario’s defensive collapse in mid-season. It was a total train wreck. He has since righted that ship, playing exceptional defense in the second half.
Then there was the carousel of LFers – Dominic Smith, JD Davis, and Jeff McNeil. That’s three players who are learning a new position – of course, McIchiro can play anywhere and do well. When you emphasize offense over defense, obviously, the Mets overall team defense will suffer. It’s impossible to determine how many wins the defense directly cost the team this year, but the stats show there is clearly room for improvement.
THE STARTING PITCHING
One of the few years the starting pitching staff can boast a full year of health, the Mets in 2019 had arguably the best 1-5 in the major leagues. Examining the expectations and digesting the results, Noah Syndergaard, considered a co-ace and perennial Cy Young contender, had a disappointing season. When he’s on – it’s magical, when he’s off – he gets shelled. Even after the steady hand of Phil Regan was brought on board, remarkably turning the staff around, Thor failed to reach his potential in crucial spots – especially down the stretch.
Zack Wheeler, and to an extent, Steven Matz, seemed to have both turned a corner. Even Marcus Stroman, after a rough start, showed flashes of his competitive nature keeping the team in games. And how could we forget the stolen bases. It’s truly an anomaly how many teams swipe bags off the Mets. Hell, it’s getting embarrassing! This has been a problem for several years – and it’s about time this was finally addressed. I don’t put this all on Thor, but the starting staff, as a whole – which includes Jason Vargas, may have cost us a few wins – especially early and late in the season.
That’s the beauty and agony of a grinding team sport like baseball. It doesn’t require a statistician to recognize that execution, fundamentals, and a steady managerial hand are all essential factors in the success of a win-now ball club. A little luck doesn’t hurt.
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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader The Hammer. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 20,000 Met fans who read this site daily.
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