An MMO Fan Shot by @LukeLPowell
Yes, Edwin Diaz has had a disastrous season by many measures, most notably my heart rate. His walk rate is too high (3.51/9), he gives up too many hits (9.1 /9), and those hits all too often have been soul-crushing, game-winning home runs.
However, a closer look at his numbers reveals an entirely different picture, one that he suggests he’s getting really, really unlucky on several fronts.
First off, his BABIP is a ridiculous .387, way above his career-high, unsustainably above the typical MLB average of about .300, and literally highest of any MLB reliever this year. This suggests that when hitters made contact on Diaz in 2019, balls found holes, with hitters getting very lucky–luckier than against any other MLB reliever.
Another standout stat is Diaz’ excellent xFIP (3.07). xFIP standardizes ERA by ballpark, corrects for fielding, and also assumes a league average home run rate. This stat is more informative than ERA because home run rates against a pitcher are wildly variable from year to year i.e., are based on tons of chance. Diaz’ HR/Fly ball is a bloated 25.9% – third in the MLB; it is completely not sustainable to have 1/4 of all fly balls against you go out of the park.
This is why despite his ugly ERA (5.59), Diaz’s xFIP sits at a robust 3.07, tops on the Mets (and yes, this includes Jacob deGrom), and his K% is perhaps more elite, is third among MLB relievers, and easily tops the Mets at 39.1% (Lugo is second at 33.1%).
So based on Diaz’ career averages, his outstanding strikeout and xFIP numbers from 2019, his youth, and the unsustainable BABIP and home run per fly ball rates he’s generated this year, there’s reason to believe that he still has high value and will help the team in at least the three more years he has left of control.
So probably not a good idea to get cagey this offseason and try to dump him for that coveted 33rd round draft pick.
* * * * * * *
This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader @LukeLPowell. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 20,000 Met fans who read this site daily.
Send your Fan Shot to [email protected] or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
