An MMO Fan Shot by Marc M. (Not4)
There has been much discussion and debate about whether the Cubs and Mets will match up for a deal this winter. Many say it would be a natural fit as each team’s strength is the other team’s weakness, which seems to make for a good match.
Early reports have been that a deal between the teams is unlikely because of substantially differing views of the value of each team’s prospects and most likely trade candidates. That begs the question of whether those reports are accurate, or if they are just part of the negotiating dance.
I have no inside knowledge one way or the other, but as someone that feels that with the right moves (albeit risky), this Mets team could compete for a title this year, I thought it was worthwhile to delve a little deeper into whether the Cubs and Mets will indeed make solid trade partners.
Most on this site, focus more on the Mets side of things. While I am far from an expert on the Cubs, I will try my best to see things from their point of view. One overarching, big-picture, point that gives me hope that a deal could be had between the teams is that over the past few weeks, Theo Epstein has publicly acknowledged two critical things:
- First, he stated that the Cubs are looking for veterans this winter to complement the young players to take the Cubs to the next level. This is not surprising as having a good mixture of youth and veterans is an outstanding way to win championships. “We sort of need some more gray hair around here. Guys that have been around the league that know how to play understand the grind of the season, know how to withstand the emotional roller-coaster, get through the losing streaks and not get too high on the winning streaks. There is something to be said for veterans who know the ropes.”
- Second, Epstein made it clear that while the Cubs plan to be in the mix for one of the elite starting pitchers, they won’t do mega deals with two pitchers. “It’s hard to acquire pitching. Period,” Epstein said Wednesday. “It’s hard to acquire top-of-the-rotation pitching. I’ve seen us linked. People predict that we’re going to sign two top-of-the-rotation starters who both require nine-figure contracts. That’s not happening.” “Look at the history of nine-figure starting-pitching contracts and it’s a huge risk. So to put an organization in the position to have two such deals immediately in the course of the same offseason, I couldn’t imagine something like that occurring.” ()
Starting Pitchers. So, just how good or how needy are the Cubs for starting pitching. They have a host of youngish arms who showed varying degrees of promise last year, but a deeper look shows a team that desperately needs to add a young potential Ace to the mix, even assuming that they sign one of the big three SP free agents.
I am basing this not just on an analysis of the Cubs current roster of SPs, but also based upon a recently rumored deal between the Nats and the Cubs, which now appears dead, but apparently got to the point that names were exchanged. The key takeaway from that deal is that it involved Jordan Zimmerman for at least one of the Cubs top young middle infielders likely to be part of the package; with Cubs needing to ink Zimmerman to an extension for any deal to go forward. (As a further point of interest, Zimmerman rejected a five year, $85mm extension last year and his value has only risen).
As noted, the deal looks unlikely now, but clearly for the right top of the rotation pitcher, whom the Cubs can control for a meaningfully number of years, Theo is wiling to include one of his prized middle infielders.
So lets look at the Cubs current starting pitchers:
- Jake Arrieta. After 4 years of mediocre results, the 28 year old Arrieta seemed to have a breakthrough year last year, albeit it, he only pitched 170 innings and will play next season as a 29 year old. He will be a free agent in 2018 and is represented by Boras, so still a big question mark surrounding what to expect from him this year and how long he will be with the team even assuming 2014 is a harbinger of things to come. As for a comp, think Niese (who is actually 6 months younger than Arrieta), except Niese has had far more success over his career. So realistically, if all falls right, he’s probably a mid-rotation starter who can pitch like a No. 2 for parts of a season.
- Kyle Hendricks had a good ½ year, but is thought of as more of a back of the rotation starter at best. Travis Wood is another back of the rotation starter who could even be non-tendered. Edwin Jackson has been a train wreck in Chicago and is on his way out one way or another, likely swapped for another bad contract. The Cubs have a handful of other arms that could fill out a rotation, but nothing special on the immediate horizon.
- Even adding a guy like Lester, Scherzer or Shields, they still have an immediate need for a stud, young and controlled pitcher if they are truly going to contend.
It is not hard to see a swap where the two key pieces are Addison Russell and Noah Syndergaard. There will most likely be some extraneous pieces added to the mix (maybe a Cory Mazzoni), but Russell and Syndergaard are the headliners here. This is a swap of two mega-prospects.
Russell came over to the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija deal with the Oakland A’s on July 4 and hit .294 with 12 homers and 36 RBI in 50 games at Double-A Tennessee. He was ranked the No. 7 prospect in the game before the 2014 season by Baseball Prospectus. Syndergaard was right behind him at No. 11.
Sure, I hate seeing Syndergaard go, but for a talent like Russell, I’m more than willing to take that chance. Like Thor, Russell will start the year in Triple-A, but could be forcing his way onto the big league team by mid-season. Not the immediate impact we were hoping for, but talk about adding a potential cornerstone player to the team, who plays plus defense and is a plus offensive player.
The point here is, if you’re going to trade the number one prospect in your system, Russell is the player you go after, not the Alexei Ramirezes and Brad Millers of the world.
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This Fan Shot was contributed by Marc M. (Not4). Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 30,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
