MMO Fan Shot: 11 Reasons To Be Hopeful For The Mets

A MMO Fan Shot by Greg Jones

In my many years as a Mets fan, I have never seen fan sentiment turn so drastically negative as it has here in the first ten days of August as we slid from a 3.5 game lead to third place, 2.5 behind the Phillies. Fans who for months have said “But we are in first place!” to turn aside discussions about the team’s weaknesses and needs were left adrift, bereft of hope, and launching discussions of hot stove moves for next year. It happened so damn fast, with the middle of the eight game slide against the last place Marlins, a team one would hope the first place Mets could use to fatten up their position entering the season’s final two months.

However, there are a number of reasons for hope when you look at the numbers for the Mets, mostly examining the last eight games, August 1-August 8 as their lead was snatched away in a 1-7 swoon.

1. In these eight games, the Mets offense scored 20 runs, their opposition 37. In only one loss was the margin more than three runs. And here is the remarkable stat: in 6 of the 7 losses, the opposition scored in their last at bat. That is not going to happened very often, particularly against our bullpen, which has been in the upper end of most NL bullpen statistics, leading the East in saves.

2. Much of the discussion in the online metsosphere has been about our offense, which has certainly been slumping in August with an appalling slash of .179/.274/.305/.580. In fact, that slash is so appalling, one can actually take some comfort in it….it is certainly not the new normal, and, in the world of statistics, bad results will cluster over a long enough sample. One can parse that slash into digestible pieces….Pete Alonso has two hits in 38 plate appearances in August, our RBI leader with only one RBI and one home run. (I almost said “by the world’s greatest power hitter” but that would be mean.) Baez clocked .167/.219/.267/.485 in 32 plate appearances, with only one exbh, the infamous home run. But there were no heroes to point to and say the team was dragged down by these two players….they were the leaders, however, and average output by them would likely have turned a number of these wins into losses.
So, that was depressing, why was this a reason to be hopeful? Oh yeah….

3. During these utterly depressing eight games, the Mets played to a BAbip of .213. To dumb down a stat that desperately cries out for dumbing down, one might simplistically call this “bad luck.” Some teams, slower of foot, or featuring low exit velocity batters, or compiling a ton of home runs, may play to a low BAbip but still be successful. With the Mets, on the other hand, one can point to their history and say that, indeed, .213 is “bad luck.” For one it is exactly 100 points below their July total. It is 61 points below their lowest month this year. It is well below any month last year, when the lowest month was .309 in August. It is 62 points below the lowest month in 2019, 42 points below our lowest month in 2018, 40 points below our lowest month in 2017….I went back to 2012, nothing even close, hell, it might be our lowest month in Mets history, (you can go back further, I’m busy writing.) Now, that is comparing 8 games to months, which is statistically derped, but there it is. So when Rojas or Pete get up and say they are hitting atom balls and having bad luck…..there is definitely something to it.

4. Our offense, prior to this 8 game stretch, was undeniably on a surge out of the crater of the first three months of 2021. First off, remember, the Mets led all of baseball, not merely the National League, in both batting average and on base percentage in 2020. Our injuries and the reliance on the “Bench Mob” (cough….they weren’t that great, look at the numbers) understandably dented the defense of our crown. The crown, of course, will be won by an AL team with the designated hitter this year, but the Mets were the first NL team not named the Rockies to win in since the DH came in in 1973. Our top six batters in plate appearances returned this year, so there certainly should be a reasonable expectation that this team can swing the bat. And, in July, after the return of a number of those batters, our numbers shot back up:

April: .231/.318/.349/.667
May: .230/.308/.368/.676
June: .222/.297/.379/.675
July: .265/.342/.439/.781

To put this in perspective, look at the uniformity between the first three months, and the jump in July. To put this in further perspective, each one of our July slashes – batting average, on base percentage, slugging and OPS – would lead the National League today if they were our year end totals. A silly stretch perhaps, but we did lead the NL in batting average and OBP last year, so a valid point of reference.

5. Pitching. I must make a confession here. I do not have anything hopeful to say about pitching. If you read my article here in Fanshots called “The Reckoning,” I felt the trading deadline was a crucial turning point for our franchise, and we faceplanted. Maybe, I dunno, we can cobble together a version of openers and our bullpen can carry us to the division crown. But I doubt it.

6. As you can see, there are many reasons to hope our offense is ready to explode, based on last year and our July numbers, despite the last eight games. We have to hope that our offense, and a slick defense with the addition of Baez up the middle, will be sufficient to overcome our pitching, which, brace yourself, is going to be awful.

In closing, I only had 6 points, but I think they are good ones, and I thought the headline would give you more hope. Let’s Go Mets!

* * * * * * *

This MMO Fan Shot was contributed by Greg Jones. Have something you want to say? Share your opinions with the best and most diverse Mets community on the web! Send your Fan Shot to getmetsmerized @ aol.com.