MLBTR: Mets Free Agent Predictions

We’re officially in the thick of free agency and MLB Trade Rumors has released their list of top 50 free agents, with projections for each player’s new team and contract.

The Mets are involved with several of the top available players. Here’s a quick breakdown of the guys MLBTR expects the Mets to sign, and where they expect current Mets free agents to sign. Their panel of four experts each made a prediction for each player, so the teams listed below represent a majority of those picks if there was one.

Carlos Rodon – Prediction: Mets, 5 years/$140M

Rodón’s roller-coaster career has reached a high point at an optimal time for the former first-round draft pick.

After dazzling on just a 1-year, $3M deal with the White Sox in 2021, Rodón signed a 2-year, $44M contract with the Giants last off-season. He opted out of the second year, making him one of the top arms available during this free agency cycle.

Two of MLBTR’s four experts project Rodón will sign with the Mets. If he does, Met fans will hope he continues his current trajectory. At just 30-years-old, Rodón could be a big part of the rotation for years to come. It’s already been reported that the Mets have interest in Rodón.

Jacob deGrom – Prediction: Rangers, 3 years/$135M

DeGrom’s opt-out was a surprise to no one, as he stated ever since spring training he would be testing free agency after the season. Injuries and inconsistency marred what could have been a magical 2022 for deGrom, who looked as good as he ever had when he was healthy.

Whether deGrom returns to New York or not, one has to wonder how much the 34-year-old has left in the tank. DeGrom and the Rangers have already reached out to each other to talk. The team that signs deGrom has to ask itself: is making a nine-figure commitment worth it to find out?

Brandon Nimmo – Prediction: Mets, 5 years/$110M

Nimmo has become one of the faces of the franchise for the Mets, but now there is a real possibility he could suit up in a different jersey for the first time in his major league career.

His consistency at the plate and in the field over the past few years now sets him up for a big payday as one of the top free agents this off-season. The Mets have stated Nimmo is a top priority and while MLBTR also lists the Astros and Giants as potential landing spots, the most popular belief is that the longtime Met stays in Queens.

Chris Bassitt – Prediction: Twins, 3 years/$60M

Chris Bassitt pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings for the 2022 Mets and provided big outings on a consistent basis. When the ’23 season starts Bassitt will be 34-years-old, so the question becomes: which team will take a chance that he can continue pitching at a high level for multiple seasons?

While MLBTR’s projections had Bassitt signing with the Twins, it seems there could be a large market for his services.

It’s worth noting that this list features three of the Mets’ main five starters from last season and they are all projected to sign elsewhere.

Taijuan Walker – Prediction: Padres, 4 years/$62M

The third member of the aforementioned rotation free agents is Taijuan Walker. At just 30-years-old, Walker could have his best baseball ahead of him despite having been in the league for at least part of ten seasons.

Walker showed flashes of brilliance early in 2021 and then hit a wall as his inning count ballooned that season. 2022 saw more consistency from Taijuan and he proved he can be a solid part of someone’s rotation.

Andrew Heaney – Prediction: Mets, 3 years/$42M

Heaney has shown flashes of brilliance in his 9-year career, but he’s also been unable to stay on the field. For Met fans who don’t know Heaney, he’s a “poor man’s” deGrom, having posted k/9 rates over 10 on a consistent basis, even putting up 13.6 in 2022, but he has also only pitched over 130 innings one time, and over 100 innings in just three seasons.

If Heaney can stay healthy, whichever team signs him will get a steal, but that’s a big “if” and his projected contract reflects the risk. The Mets have already reportedly shown interest in the left-hander.

David Robertson – Prediction: Mets, 2 years/$16M

The Mets experienced significant bullpen woes in 2022 and Robertson was a popular name around the trade deadline, but the veteran reliever ended up pitching for the Phillies instead.

Now in free agency Robertson is linked to the Mets again and despite the fact that during the second week of the season he will turn 38, David’s presence would be welcomed in Queens as a reliable reliever with a long track record of success.

Adam Ottavino – Prediction: No Consensus, 2 years/$14M

When he’s on, Ottavino has one of the nastiest sliders in the game and we saw a few outings last season where he seemed unhittable. MLBTR is all over the board when projecting where Ottavino might land, but at two-years, $14 million it would make a lot of sense for the Mets to keep him in their ‘pen, even if he’s not the high-leverage guy he was in 2022.

As is the case with any free agent, you can’t count the Mets out with Steve Cohen at the helm. Even though guys like Trea Turner, Aaron Judge and Justin Verlander weren’t included with the Mets in the running, many never would have put Max Scherzer on the Mets’ radar at this time last year so anything can happen.

Stay tuned to MMO for up-to-the-minute and in-depth coverage of free agency!