The rumors for the draft seem to only be building towards the Mets taking a college player, specifically a pitcher

Jim Callis of MLB.com released a mock draft of 5/31 which had the Mets taking Zack Thompson. Callis also mentioned “New York is in play for the top four college arms. If none of them get to 12 or Thompson fails to check out medically after having a shoulder injury in high school and elbow issues last year, the Mets will turn to Langeliers, Stott or Baty.”

The top four college arms are Zack Thompson, Alek Manoah, Jackson Rutledge, and Nick Lodolo but George Kirby is also likely under consideration. I mentioned Thompson’s medical history in last weeks update and the concern for his arm going forward. His heavy workload this spring combined with his heavy injury issues from the last two years make him a serious injury risk.

Alek Manoah was also touched upon in last week’s update but he does not seem likely to make the Mets. He has an upside similar to Rutledge while also showing more control of his pitches. He seems like a good bet to be one of the first college pitchers taken and for some reason, if he’s sitting at 12, the Mets need to be sprinting to select him.

Baseball America also released their mock draft today. They had the Mets taking Rutledge and their write up was very similar to that of MLB.com’s. They said: “Rutledge’s range seems to be from 8-14, but we keep hearing mostly college names and pitchers tied to the Mets at No. 12. If Manoah is on the board, he probably doesn’t get past this pick.”

Jackson Rutledge is perhaps my favorite prospect in this draft. At a towering 6’8″, his fastball can reach 99 MPH and his slider and curveball are both plus pitches. His slider has solid spin to it and it can generate a lot of swings and misses. His curveball is not as good but it is still pretty darn good. It’s a 12-6 curve and with the velocity difference he can generate, it’s able to give him a reliable third pitch. The changeup and command are not there yet but the potential are what have him so high on draft boards. A pitcher with his stuff has a much higher ceiling as opposed to some of the other pitchers in this draft.

Baseball Farm released their mock too and they had the Mets taking George Kirby. Their writeup on him included the blurb, “He might be the safest bet to be a #3 and proved on the Cape how dominant he can be as an RP if he needs to become a FB/CV guy. As a New York native, the Mets might be able to slide a few $ away from his signing bonus and he fits their win now timeline.” They also compared him to Indians starter, Shane Bieber.

Photo by Elon Athletics

This is the second mock linking the Mets to Kirby. Keith Law’s mock also had the Mets making Kirby their pick. The Mets picked Kirby back during the 2016 in the 32nd round. The Mets probably had little or no chance of signing him but it does usually show players that the team is interested in them and it forms a future connection. An example of this was when the Mets used a late pick on Anthony Kay in 2013 and drafted him again in 2016. They did the same with 2018 third rounder Carlos Cortes.

My colleague, Roberto Correa, had this to say on Kirby: “The 6′ 4″ 201-pound righty features a plus fastball that he locates well to both sides of the plate. Sitting about mid-90’s and touching 97, his fastball is his best offering, he does also throw a mix of curveballs, sliders, and change-ups. His change-up has been his most consistent secondary offering, and has solid downward bite.”

Everything seems to suggest it will be a college pitcher at this point. It’s more of just how the draft is expected to shake up. The exciting college hitters are all expected to be go between picks 1-7 with a few pitchers sprinkled in there. I think as it stands as of now, the pick seems to be heading towards George Kirby. Their scouts like him, his medicals are cleaner than Thompson’s, and he could buy them more flexibility for round two.