Mets Would Be Wise to Increase Aggressiveness on Base Paths

Despite plenty of optimism heading into this season, it’s no secret the New York Mets have struggled scoring consistently this summer, and if this team hopes to make a late push for the playoffs, some key adjustments must be made to help ignite this offense down the stretch.

In an attempt to provide the club’s pitching staff significantly more run support, the most obvious solution to this scoring crisis would be for the Mets to experience a major power surge over the final month and a half of the regular season. But like we’ve witnessed all year long, breaking out offensively doesn’t usually happen overnight and requires a considerable amount of time to take form – something this team doesn’t possess much of.

Nearing the end of August, New York finds itself in a three-team race for the National League East Division title, involving the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, however, this club still has a ton of ground to make up to position themselves closer to first place. Since desperate times call for desperate measures, now would be the ideal time to become dramatically more aggressive, particularly on the bases.

Even though baserunning isn’t a vital aspect of the sport anymore, as it’s been deemed an unnecessary risk in today’s era, operating efficiently in this department can still have a pretty large impact on the outcome of a game, especially for an offense that struggles to hit for power.

While being effective on the base paths doesn’t necessarily mean the difference between competitive and non-competitive teams, there are some advantages to gaining an extra 90 feet or more. For the Mets in particular, they haven’t explored this avenue nearly as much as they probably should, causing them to serve as one of the worst baserunning clubs in the majors this season.

Proving to be a one-dimensional offense, this team currently owns the lowest BsR (-15.4), is tied for the lowest speed score (3.2) and has registered the second-fewest stolen bases (32) among all 30 teams in the majors, according to FanGraphs.com.

In addition, they’re also tied for the third-lowest SLG (.379) and have produced the third-fewest runs scored (457), the fourth-lowest ISO (.144), along with the fifth-fewest home runs (126).

Barring some sort of offensive explosion, which seems unlikely at this point, it’d be wise for the Mets to at least consider increasing their aggressiveness on the bases through the remainder of the campaign. This altered approach may not lead to improved slugging metrics, although there’s a very strong chance it could provide considerably more run-scoring opportunities.

For the most part, this lineup has primarily moved just station-to-station on the base paths, and on occasion, has attempted to advance from first to third base on hits that have been directed to right field. Stealing bases also haven’t been a major focal point of their agenda, which are two areas they should spend significantly more attention on moving forward.

Though most organizations don’t feel comfortable about taking baserunning risks early in games, that thought process isn’t something New York should apply to its roster any longer, as scoring first has become a huge weakness for them in 2021. Lacking a serious punch out of the gate, this team has struggled mightily at generating consistent offense through the first three innings of each contest, providing the pitching staff very little margin for error.

Putting these struggles into perspective, the Mets have recorded the second-fewest runs scored (132) and RBIs (122), the fourth-lowest wRC+ score and the fifth-fewest stolen bases (12) among all 30 major league teams during those first three innings.

Making matters worse, they’ve also grounded into 29 double plays during that same span, which is tied for ninth-most in the majors.

Taking into account this team’s 8.5% walk rate within the first three innings of a game – tied for 10th-highest in the majors – it’d make plenty of sense to allow those base runners to operate more aggressively in hopes of sparking this underperforming lineup. If successful, there’d likely be dramatically more runners in scoring position early on, forcing opposing defenses to change their alignments, potentially allowing for more balls to sneak through for hits.

Even though the Mets don’t feature a long list of elite speedsters, outfielder Brandon Nimmo is someone who features a ton of quickness but hasn’t received enough opportunities in the past to make a sizeable impact with his game-changing speed.

Despite posting a 3.8 BsR, a 5.9 speed score and 12 stolen bases from 2018-2019, Nimmo’s outstanding skills on the base paths have barely been utilized over the last two seasons, resulting in a -0.6 BsR, a 3.8 speed score and only three stolen bases since 2020.

Granted, the 28-year-old has struggled to stay healthy this season and suffered a hamstring injury at the end of July, so the coaching staff is likely attempting to avoid any further injury by limiting his intensity while he’s on base. But given his .399 OBP and .351 wOBA in 2021, playing it safe with the 6’3″ outfielder is probably costing this club a solid amount of potential run-scoring chances.

Since Nimmo’s sprint speed has surpassed his previous career-high, as it’s climbed to 28.8 feet per second, there’s no reason why he can start using his legs on the bases significantly more often through the remainder of the season, assuming he’s fully healthy, of course. In turn, he should be provided the green light to steal more bases and move first to third when the right opportunities present themselves.

Along with utilizing Nimmo’s quickness more frequently, the Mets’ lineup could become an even more effective baserunning unit once infielders Francisco Lindor and Javier Baez return to action, as both of them have made a pretty significant impact on the bases in 2021.

Starting with Baez, when he’s able to get on base, the 28-year-old doesn’t have any issues showcasing his speed, allowing him to generate a 2.7 BsR, a 6.1 speed score and 13 stolen bases. As for Lindor, he’s also difficult to stop on the base paths, since he’s registered a 1.7 BsR, a 5.1 speed score and eight stolen bases.

While there likely won’t be much playing time for veteran Jonathan Villar in the near future, it could still be very beneficial to utilize the 30-year-old during prime pinch-running situations, especially considering he leads the team in stolen bases (10), is second in BsR (1.3) and third in speed score (4.7).

With the Mets seemingly searching for answers, becoming a more aggressive baserunning team could potentially be just what they need to improve their offensive efficiency. Sure, this game plan doesn’t come without some level of risk, however, the reward of executing this approach could prove to be extremely fulfilling.

Even if this strategy doesn’t correct every single offensive woe, which it probably wouldn’t do anyway, altering this team’s thinking process would likely be much more effective than staying on this current course, hoping something drastic will happen to this lack of scoring all on its own.