Brodie Van Wagenen made another addition to the Mets’ major league roster on Friday when it was reported that the team had agreed to terms with veteran left-hander Justin Wilson.

One small, but still worthwhile detail to note is that the Mets are currently operating with a full 40-man roster. That means a spot must be opened up to make Wilson’s signing official.

Who could be the odd man out? Let’s look at some rules that may paint a clearer picture. First, a refresher.

When a team needs to open up a 40-man roster spot, there are three options, which typically come into play once a player has been designated for assignment (giving the team up to seven days to determine which path it wants to take). First, it can trade a player from the roster in exchange for someone who is not on another team’s roster. The second—and most seldom used—option is to release a player from the roster.

Finally, the team can outright a player to the minor leagues—the only option that keeps a player in the organization, with the risk being that the player must first be exposed to the other 29 teams on waivers. (In the offseason, the 60-day disabled list is unavailable. That option opens up once players officially report to spring training)

We are going to assume that the Mets do not already have a trade worked out (although it’s certainly possible they do) and that a player won’t be released. The Mets have only released two players following a DFA since the end of the 2014 season—John Mayberry Jr. in 2015 and Fernando Salas in 2017.

When it comes to outrights during the offseason, the 40-man roster can be broken down into three categories: those who can be outrighted, those who cannot under any circumstance, and those who can be—with caveats.

Warning: Gory roster details below.

Can be outrighted

Tyler Bashlor; J.D. Davis; Edwin Diaz; Luis Guillorme; Seth Lugo; Jeff McNeil; Jacob Rhame; Amed Rosario; Dominic Smith; Drew Smith.

These players fall into this category simply because they are not restricted by the conditions explained below.

Cannot be outrighted

Gavin Cecchini; Kyle Dowdy; Chris Flexen; Drew Gagnon; Robert Gsellman; Eric Hanhold; Franklyn Kilome; Walker Lockett; Tomas Nido; Brandon Nimmo; Corey Oswalt; Tim Peterson; T.J. Rivera; Paul Sewald; Daniel Zamora.

Kilome is injured, and teams can’t outright injured players. Simple. Dowdy was selected in December’s Rule 5 Draft and thus needs to remain on the major league roster or be offered back to the Indians (he can be outrighted if for some reason Cleveland rejects the return, but none of that can happen earlier than March 8).

Hanhold and Zamora are what is called “draft-excluded players.” Because they would have been eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if they had not been added to the 40-man roster, they carry the same restrictions as Dowdy.

This is where it gets weird (as if the whole concept of this article isn’t already). The remaining 11 players fit a unique profile. Simply put, players who would have been declared six-year minor league free agents (as in, had their minor league contracts renewed seven times—this is normal minor league free agency) after the previous season (if they had not been on the 40-man roster at the time) can’t be outrighted until they sign a contract for the upcoming season.

This is how Jamie Callahan left the organization on November 2, which was the last date to outright this type of player.

Because these players have fewer than three years of service time (also knows as pre-arbitration), the team can unilaterally force the player to sign a minimum salary contract. However, this can’t happen until March 1, in accordance with the uniform player’s contract.

So when someone calls for Gagnon or Sewald’s head, point them this way. If the move to clear a spot for Wilson is to DFA one of these players, that means a trade is in fact imminent.

Update [1/28]: I just got done talking with former Mets baseball operations executive Adam Fisher, who informed me that this rule is no longer in effect because the 11 players were tendered contracts for 2019 on November 30. Sincerest apologies for the misinformation.

Can be outrighted—with caveats

Keon Broxton; Robinson Cano; Yoenis Cespedes; Michael Conforto; Travis d’Arnaud; Jacob deGrom; Jeurys Familia; Todd Frazier; Juan Lagares; Jed Lowrie; Steven Matz; Wilson Ramos; Noah Syndergaard; Zack Wheeler.

The remaining 15 players on the 40-man roster can technically be outrighted, but they hold the leverage. Players with at least three years of service time, or have been outrighted at least once before in their career, can elect free agency instead of heading to the minor leagues.

A player with at least five years of service time can simply say “no thanks” to an outright assignment without having to elect free agency. This would force the team to keep him on the roster, trade him, or release him.

Warning: Gory roster details over. 

So there you have it, a look into some of the many factors that go into the fringe roster decisions that front offices have to make. I would be happy to answer any questions in the comments.