Mookie Betts
Position: RF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: October 7, 1992 (27)
Traditional Stats: .295/.391/.524, 40 2B, 5 3B, 29 HR, 16 SB, 80 RBI
Advanced Stats: 6.8 bWAR, 6.6 fWAR, 135 OPS+, 135 wRC+
Defensive Stats: 1129.1 innings, 15 DRS, 12.9 UZR, 15.6 UZR/150
Contract: Arbitration eligible (~$30 million), Free Agent after 2020
When it comes to right fielders, Mookie Betts is as good as it gets. He is a perennial threat for the Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and MVP. While you might think a team like the Red Sox would never part with such a talented and young outfielder, it’s actually quite possible this offseason.
As I outlined in a recent article, the Red Sox are facing significant taxes as their payroll projects to far surpass the luxury tax threshold. Part of the cause is Betts, as he’s due for a pay raise through arbitration that could pay him $30 million in 2020. This is not about the Red Sox, so for the sake of this article, consider Betts available as many have reported.
Betts, 27, is easily one of the best ballplayers in the world, slashing .295/.391/.524 with 29 HR and 80 RBIs last season in 150 games. Batting leadoff for the potent Red Sox lineup, Betts led MLB with 135 runs scored. That was a career high, but most of his career bests came in 2018 when he won the AL MVP over Mike Trout.
In 2018, Betts slashed .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs, 80 RBIs, 129 runs scored, 185 wRC+, and a 10.4 fWAR. He won the ML batting title, also leading MLB in SLG% and runs scored while winning the Silver Slugger and third-straight Gold Glove.
He is very good, and with that, he will carry a large price tag. The Red Sox desperately need to cut payroll so moving his ~$30 million contract is attractive to them, but that’s their only incentive to move him. The team trading for him will surely have to pay up, but the amount of talent they send will directly correlate with how much of his contract they’re willing to take on. The Mets 2020 payroll has wriggle room due to free agents leaving, and the complexion can change depending on who is non-tendered. It is not far-fetched to think the Mets could swing a trade.
Needs for Boston
Firstly, with Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce leaving for free agency, the Red Sox will be looking for a first baseman. As the point of this offseason is to cut payroll, free agency is not a good option for them. They will be looking for a young, cheap first baseman under team control for many years and the Mets have three: Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, and J.D. Davis. A deal between the Mets and Red Sox for Betts would surely have to include one of those three players.
Next, the Red Sox desperately need starting pitching help. They seem to love having left-handed starters (Chris Sale, David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez), so perhaps including Steven Matz would pique their interest. He is cheap and under team control through 2021, not to mention a solid starter. The Mets would be left with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Marcus Stroman under contract for 2020 which is not a bad starting point to build from.
Last, the Red Sox bullpen is atrocious. While the Mets ‘pen had its issues in 2019, there are many arms that would be appealing to other teams. This could be a good opportunity for the Mets to send a little money back to the Red Sox so New York doesn’t add $30 million to the payroll without subtracting anything. While the Red Sox would love Seth Lugo, he is most likely untouchable, so sending them Jeurys Familia (two years, $22 million remaining) would make sense. Justin Wilson would also be appealing for the Sox, but don’t make sense for the Mets to move him.
How to Make It Work
Any team would improve when adding Mookie Betts, but when he costs $30 million, how do you make it work?
As of right now, the Mets have Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Yoenis Cespedes (remember him?) under contract for 2020. Nimmo and Conforto are healthy, but Cespedes remains as big of a question mark as ever after breaking his ankle on his ranch in May. There have been no updates from the Mets regarding his health, but it is reasonable to assume that he will be ready for Spring Training barring any setbacks.
Some have suggested the Mets trade him this offseason, but that would involve finding a trading partner, which seems very unlikely. So, if the Mets were to trade for Betts, we must assume Cespedes and his $29.5 million contract is on the payroll. Knowing the Mets will have those three guys under contract, as well as Jeff McNeil who can play outfield well, is Betts necessary?
The thing with trading for Betts is that he will immediately become the Mets’ best outfielder. If the Mets were to move some of their outfield depth in the trade, it makes a bit more sense.
Verdict
Many questions must be answered by Brodie Van Wagenen before trading for Betts. The only way a trade for him makes sense, especially one that involves players like Matz, Davis, Smith, Nimmo, etc., is if they plan on locking him up long-term. If they do truly intend to extend him, then a trade could be a good idea, so BVW must talk with the Wilpons to determine whether or not an extension is in the cards.
If they don’t plan on extending him, though, one season of Mookie Betts might not be worth five years of J.D. Davis, two of Steven Matz, three of Brandon Nimmo, etc. Also, adding Betts’ huge contract would prevent them from spending that money elsewhere on real needs like the bullpen or starting rotation. With Cespedes, Nimmo, Conforto, and McNeil, the outfield isn’t exactly a need.
In summation, if the Mets are sure they will sign Betts to an extension, then it’s worth it to trade for him. Otherwise, it could be self-destructive, no matter how good of a player he is.
