With the calendar turning to March, Opening Day is now less than a month away, meaning there isn’t much time left for the New York Mets to extend multiple impending free agents before the regular season begins.
While the focus is currently on the upcoming campaign, and rightly so, the Mets’ front office also has its hands full with taking care of some future business this spring, as both Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto are slated to hit the open market after this season.
If attempting to lock up both of those key players wasn’t difficult enough, they’ll also be tasked with negotiating a new contract with pitcher Noah Syndergaard, who’s also set to become a free agent next winter.
Even though Syndergaard isn’t as valuable as Lindor and Conforto, management still views him as a meaningful part of the roster and would prefer to keep him in blue pinstripes for many more seasons to come. It certainly won’t be easy to negotiate three long-term deals in just a month, but team president Sandy Alderson remains hopeful he’ll be able to hold some productive meetings with the 6′ 6″ hurler and his representatives in the near future.
“Noah’s contract expires at the end of the year,” Alderson discussed during his press conference. “It would be natural for us to talk about the possibilities, the options. We will do that.”
In a perfect world, the Mets would happily provide lucrative contract extensions to all three of these All-Star players, but this isn’t a fantasy and there’s a solid chance Alderson will be forced to eventually make some very tough decisions. Since extending this trio would significantly impact the organization’s future spending, one of those difficult choices may include pushing a player’s contract talks to after the season, and it probably makes the most sense to delay Syndergaard’s potential extension.
As things stand right now, New York’s payroll for the 2022 campaign currently sits at just over $100 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But taking into account contract tendering and arbitration, that figure will likely rise to approximately $150 million, leaving the front office with $60 million or so in tax space based on this season’s $210 million luxury tax threshold.
Even if the new collective bargaining agreement increases next season’s threshold, it probably won’t be rising by a significant amount, especially since it’s only increased by $4 million since 2019. Combining that slow progression along with the financial shortcomings caused by COVID-19, it’s certainly possible the final amount will end up looking very similar to the 2021 figure.
So if the Mets have around $60 million in tax space next offseason, this probably leaves them with enough space to extend two of either Lindor, Conforto, or Syndergaard without crossing over the luxury tax threshold. But if they sign all three players this month, they’ll become a luxury tax team before the 2021 campaign begins, which could complicate their plans for next winter.
While Alderson and his staff may be prepared to do that, doing so during the offseason rather than before the regular season would likely be a more favorable option. It’d provide them with additional clarity on future revenue and they’d also gain a better understanding of the free-agent market.
Since Syndergaard is entering his age-28 season and is also coming off Tommy John surgery, it may be somewhat difficult for management to determine his current value, which could prevent both sides from coming to terms on a long-term deal this spring. But if the right-hander stays healthy and returns to his previous form in 2021, it’d probably become much easier for the front office to make him an offer once the season concludes.
After suffering a serious elbow injury, it’d be wise to have the towering hurler prove he’s still capable of performing at a high level before handing him a new contract. Though the club isn’t expecting him to replicate his stellar 2016 campaign, where he recorded a career-high 6.0 fWAR, the veteran arm could easily improve the value of his next contract if he posts at least 4.0 fWAR for the third-straight campaign. However, it still might be challenging for both sides to come to an agreement.
Despite missing the entire 2020 campaign, the 2016 NL All-Star is still considered one of the top hurlers in the league and he’ll undoubtedly be searching for a considerable raise from his $9.7 million salary. While it’s unclear as to what his exact price point will be, and we may have to wait until next offseason to find out, there’s a very strong chance he’ll be looking to receive a higher contract than pitcher Kyle Hendricks‘ four-year, $55.5 million deal that was signed back in 2019.
Considering “Thor” produced a better ERA (3.31), FIP (2.93), xFIP (3.17), FIP- (71), strikeout rate (26.3%), and fWAR (18.7) than Hendricks from 2015-2019, he probably deserves a higher average salary than just $13.8 million. That being said, if he commands a similar contract to Zack Wheeler‘s five-year, $118 million deal, it might make more sense to allow him to enter free agency.
With pitchers Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco at the front of the rotation along with the addition of Taijuan Walker, who signed a two-year, $20 million deal, Syndergaard could become expendable after this season if his contract demands soar too high for the Mets.
Since teammate Marcus Stroman is also set to hit the open market next offseason, letting both of them depart through free agency and utilizing that tax space to fill one open vacancy could be the best route to take.
If both Stroman and Syndergaard indeed leave, the Mets’ rotation would likely consist of deGrom, Carrasco, Walker, David Peterson, and potentially Joey Lucchesi in 2022. Adding to this group, management would have an opportunity to acquire at least one starter to compete for the final spot in the rotation, which would ultimately provide them with a potent pitching staff for a second consecutive season.
So while the front office is set to begin contract negotiations with Syndergaard shortly, don’t be surprised if he opens the 2021 campaign without a new deal and takes his services elsewhere once free agency begins next offseason.
