The Mets are still in the process of rounding out their roster and with many top free agents still available, the Mets could have a lot options to do so.
The most linear way of thinking on this issue would be to sign or trade for a second/third baseman. However, in a free agent class so loaded, maybe the Mets should look to get a little creative to make a roster capable of making the playoffs, as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News discusses.
I would like to focus on just one aspect of that article, though, which is the idea of signing a starting pitcher. More specifically, I want to focus on Lance Lynn.
The Mets pitching staff, while as elite as anyone’s when healthy, could use some insurance to avoid the absolute collapse of the rotation that occurred in 2017.
While it is likely that the Mets’ pitchers will not be that injury prone again, it is worth noting that there are still a lot of question marks in that regard.
Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler are far from certainties to remain healthy. In Harvey’s case, he might not be effective even if he is able to stay on the field. On top of it, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo both regressed significantly last season, which raises some significant concerns about whether they are reliable backup plans.
Despite Lynn’s Tommy John Surgery in 2015, he has proven to be one of the more effective and durable pitchers in the game to date.
Since converting to a full-time starting pitcher in 2012, Lynn has logged 175 innings or more in every season except for the 2016 season (missed recovering from previous years’ surgery).
In fact, he pitched 186.1 innings this season in his first season back from the procedure and was very effective in that time.
The 30-year old went 11-8 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.229 WHIP, 4.82 FIP, and 153 strikeouts last season. While he clearly is not a strikeout pitcher, which could be concerning, he has done this his entire career.
He has only recorded 919 strikeouts in his 977.2 innings, which suggests that while this trend might unfortunately not change, it might not really matter as he has shown he can be very effective without being a strikeout pitcher.
However, it could be alarming to the Mets and many teams that he allowed almost double his career high in home runs in 2017. He allowed 27 home runs, with a previous career-high of 16 allowed in a season.
In this market, that could depress his value significantly and make him very affordable for the Mets.
Jon Heyman of the FanRag Sports Network predicted at the beginning of the offseason that Lynn would receive a four-year, $56 million contract.
That price very well could be significantly less now with Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and Alex Cobb all still out on the market.
So, maybe if he is in position to get a three-year deal and around $36 million money-wise, the Mets could get involved. That would add $12 million a season over the next few years, which for a quality innings eater, would certainly fit Alderson’s goal of finding value.
If the Mets were to sign Lynn, their rotation would feature Lynn, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.
Assuming Steven Matz is healthy, he would likely get the fourth spot in the rotation followed by one of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Robert Gsellman, and Seth Lugo.
That would give the Mets a force-to-reckoned for their rotation again, and it would give them the option to move at least one of the latter four options to the bullpen.
In a perfect world for me, the Mets would be able to get Lynn plus one of Josh Harrison and Todd Frazier.
Realistically, though, the Mets are probably going to prioritize one or the other. One final note that I would like to point out before leaving the decision to you is this:
The 2015 Mets roster was built on strong pitching that lacked a true lineup presence until the arrival of Yoenis Cespedes. They struggled to score runs in the first half, which caused them to be only about the level of a .500 team until that trade was made, but took off upon his addition.
But, this team is extremely reliant on their elite-level pitching, and the truth of the matter is they likely will not be anywhere near the playoffs if their rotation is not healthy and efficient as we saw last season.
The Mets should definitely go out and sign an infielder as Jose Reyes is definitely not the answer at the keystone. At the end of the day, though, the Mets playoff hopes will ride-or-die because of their starting pitching, and Lance Lynn could be the pitcher to give them the chance to ride the rotation deep into the playoffs.
